Covid-19 : Situation in France and in the world on 29 April 2020

General (2s) Dominique Delawarde, a former intelligence officer specializing in international issues and particularly the United States, gives a precise analysis of the international situation every morning.

Situation report of 29 April 0:00 GMT

Since the beginning of the epidemic

210 countries or territories or vessels (2) were affected by the virus, with 3 136 508 reported cases.
217,813 deaths (+6,365 yesterday); 953,309 recoveries (+32,000 yesterday); 1,965,386 patients treated (+35,140 yesterday), including 56,965 in critical condition (+668 yesterday).

It should be noted that
10 countries or territories are reportedly still not affected by the epidemic to date (North Korea, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Lesotho, Comoros, Tonga, Solomon Islands, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Palau).
6 countries that have been affected are no longer affected, due to the recovery (5) or death (1) of the or only recorded case. (Yemen, Saint Barth, Mauritania, Greenland, Saint Lucia, Anguilla).
66 countries or territories have had between 1 and 100 cases detected since the beginning of the epidemic (32 of them have no deaths, and the remaining 34 have a total of only 102 deaths).
59 countries or territories have had between 101 and 1000 cases detected since the beginning of the epidemic for a total of 855 deaths.
Of the 210 countries or territories that have been affected by the epidemic, 143 have reported between 0 and 50 deaths.
6 365 new coronavirus deaths on 28 April (+ 1 833 yesterday).

18 countries (including India) have reported more than 1 000 deaths since the beginning of the epidemic: in order of loss (USA, Italy, Spain, France, United Kingdom, Belgium, Germany, Iran, China, Netherlands, Brazil, Turkey, Canada, Sweden, Switzerland, Mexico, Ireland, India).

Of the 217,813 deaths recorded worldwide since the beginning of the epidemic, 199,286 (91.5%) have occurred in these 18 countries and 188,172 (86.4%) in Western countries (US, EU, NATO).
5,147 of the 6,365 deaths reported yesterday (81.4%) are “US, EU, NATO”. It is this camp that is paying today and will pay tomorrow the highest price both in human and economic terms (recession + probable economic crisis).
Worldwide, the epidemic remains acute in the United States and the United Kingdom. It now seems to be spreading to Latin America and India. It is mirrored elsewhere in Europe. In the next few days, the balance sheets should become even more serious in the USA and the United Kingdom. The milestones of 225,000 deaths and 3.2 million cases will be passed today.
Yesterday’s heaviest toll remains in the US, UK and France. These three countries together account for 41.9% of new cases, 53.8% of new deaths and 37.3% of critical cases worldwide.
A table of the current balance sheet of the number of cases and deaths by major regions of the world makes it possible to see which are doing well, for the moment, and which have suffered and continue to suffer.

Asia, with the exception of Turkey, Iran and India, has virtually emerged from the epidemic. Its share in the balance sheet is gradually shrinking. The share of the American continent (North and South) and Africa is increasing very gradually. Analysis of the table shows that the poorest developing countries are doing better than the rich countries, which have the means to provide better care. With 23.22% of reported cases, developing countries account for only 13.44% of deaths.
To put the human toll of this pandemic into perspective, the World Health Organization (WHO) tells us that, each year, seasonal influenza is responsible for 5 million “serious” cases, resulting in between 280,000 and 600,000 deaths. To date, Covid-19 has only affected 3.15 million people (tested), including nearly 460,000 serious cases resulting in 218,000 deaths.

Let’s look at it country by country

The USA still has the highest losses on the planet (nearly 60,000 deaths). These have risen sharply again. The number of patients being treated has risen sharply (+20,000), the number of critical cases has risen above the 15,000 mark and the number of deaths is approaching 2,500. The US is not at the end of its troubles.
The situation in France continues to improve very slowly. The number of daily deaths, linked to the number of patients in intensive care, continues to fall progressively.
France’s mortality rate is currently 362 deaths per million inhabitants (excluding deaths at home), compared to a world average of 27.9. This is one of the highest human loss rates in the world (4th).
With a total cure rate of 28.2% of cases reported at the national level, France is doing less well than Italy, which has cured 34.2% of its patients, and Spain, which has already cured 53.4%. It has healed far less than Germany, which has already sent 73.4% of its patients home, Switzerland, which has healed 77.2%, Austria, which has healed 81.9%, etc….
It is surprising that France declares 39,076 “probable cases” of HPAE “with symptoms compatible with a Covid-19 diagnosis”. Question: why are these probable cases not tested? Are they waiting for results?
The situation in the UK is still unclear. It is struggling to count its deaths and the data provided by the health authorities have been grossly underestimated from the outset. The data reported are those of deaths in hospital. As hospital capacity is low, losses are therefore limited because deaths in nursing homes and at home are not counted so far.
The counter for critical cases has been stuck at 1,559 for more than 15 days. The number of patients being treated continues to increase by 3,000 to 4,000 per day. With nearly 140,000 patients, this is the country with the most patients after the USA. One thing is certain: the United Kingdom has not yet reached the peak of the epidemic.
The situation in Italy is improving very slowly, with a slight drop in critical cases. The number of daily deaths remains below 400 and is expected to decrease in the coming days.
The situation in Spain is stable. The number of new cases is slightly decreasing. It is now lower than the number of recoveries. The number of daily deaths remains below 350. Only the still very high number of critical cases remains a cause for concern.
The situation in Germany has deteriorated very slightly, even though it is declining: a slight increase in deaths and new cases, but still more cures than new cases, and a very significant drop in the number of patients under treatment (- 2000 yesterday).
The situations in Turkey, Belgium, Switzerland, Sweden, Iran and Canada are stable, while those in Brazil and Russia are deteriorating. It should be noted that for Iran, Turkey and Switzerland the number of recoveries is now higher than the number of new cases. While the losses are still very high for a small country like Belgium and significant for Switzerland and Sweden, they remain low for Brazil, Iran, Turkey and Canada and very low for Russia.
Russia is still testing a lot (130,000 tests yesterday), hence the very high number of new cases detected (still 2nd behind the USA with more than 6,000). What is worrying for her is the high number of serious or critical cases. The number of deaths will increase in the coming days. Russia should pass the 1,000 death mark on April 30, along with Peru, Ecuador and Portugal.

The epidemic is clearly spreading to Latin America. This is true in Mexico, a neighbour of the USA, but also in Panama, Ecuador, Brazil, Peru and Chile. For the last three countries, this expansion comes at a time when the southern hemisphere is in the middle of autumn and is moving towards its winter of 21 June. Is there a causal link?
In Ireland and India, the epidemic seems to be growing.

The mortality rates per million inhabitants of the 18 countries having exceeded 1000 deaths (+ Russia), in the table below, gives a small idea of the most affected geographical areas and the quality of the management of the epidemic by the governments of each of the States.
As a reminder, the Covid-19 mortality rate is 27.9 deaths per million inhabitants worldwide.