General (2s) Dominique Delawarde, a former intelligence officer specializing in international issues, particularly the United States, provides a weekly analysis of the evolution of the Covid-19 epidemic at the national and international level.
Situation report for Saturday 8 August 0h00 GMT
Since the beginning of the epidemic
214 countries or territories were affected by the virus, for 19,532,532 reported cases (+ 1,787,730 in 1 week).
723,184 deaths (+ 40,992 in 1 week); 12,537,854 recoveries (+ 1,386,526 in 1 week) ;
6,271,394 patients undergoing treatment (+ 360,000 in 1 week), including 65,131 in critical condition (- 397 in 1 week).
It should be noted that: 6 countries or territories are still not affected by the epidemic to date.
12 countries or territories that were affected are no longer affected. 16 others that had eradicated the epidemic, at one time or another, have “fallen back into it” ….
The evolution of reported losses over the past week can be summarized in a table: It shows how low mortality remains in Oceania and Africa, how stable it is stabilizing in Europe and rebounding in the United States, how it is still rising in Latin America and deteriorating further in Western Asia (India and neighbouring countries).
– 34 countries listed below in order of loss have reported more than 2,000 deaths since the beginning of the epidemic: (USA, Brazil, Mexico, United Kingdom, India, Italy, France, Spain, Peru, Iran, Russia, Colombia, South Africa, Chile, Belgium, Germany, Canada, Netherlands, Pakistan, Ecuador, Turkey, Sweden, Indonesia, Egypt, Iraq, China, Argentina, Bolivia, Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia, Romania, Guatemala, Philippines, Switzerland.
– Of the 723,184 deaths in the epidemic worldwide, 684,261 (94.6%) occurred in these 34 countries.
Worldwide, the pandemic continues unabated. The number of deaths (40,972 in 1 week) is on the rise and the number of critical cases (65,131) is not decreasing significantly. With 1.788 million new cases/week reported, contamination remains high worldwide.
The epidemic has stopped its downward trend in Europe, the circulation of the virus has started to increase again, but the virus seems much less lethal: (nearly 136,200 new cases in one week), still more than 1.1 million patients undergoing treatment (if we take into account the countries that no longer report them: UK, Spain, Sweden and the Netherlands), 5,160 critical cases (+ 50). The virus continues to spread in West Asia (India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran) and Africa (South Africa, Egypt). The milestones of 21.4 million cases and 760,000 deaths are expected to be reached next week.
Over the past week, and for the second week in a row, the US has reported more deaths than Brazil. This has not happened in more than two months. Yet Latin America still remains the epicentre of the epidemic, with more than twice the losses in Northern America (USA+Canada). Of the 40,972 deaths in the past week, 18,438 are Latin American, 7,374 are US or Canadian and 2,294 are European. The situation is deteriorating further in West Asia with a major outbreak in India ( + Pakistan + Bangladesh + Saudi Arabia + Iraq). If we add Iran and Turkey, the countries in the region now account for more than 27% of new cases worldwide with nearly 74,000 new cases/day.
Yesterday’s highest figures are still those of the USA, Brazil, Mexico and India. These four countries alone reported yesterday: 65.9% of new cases, 66% of new deaths and 60.4% of critical cases worldwide.
A table showing the current situation of the number of cases and deaths by major regions of the world makes it possible to see, at a glance, which regions are doing well so far.
Oceania, Africa and Asia still have very low mortality rates and a share of global losses in the order of 18%, even though they account for 77% of the population. Europe and the American continent (North and South) account for nearly 82% of the losses for less than 23% of the world’s population. The shares of Europe and North America are falling, little by little. The shares of Latin America, Africa and (Western) Asia are increasing.
Covid mortality rates in the poorest developing countries are still much lower than those in richer countries that can afford better health care.
To put the human toll of the 2020 pandemic into perspective, it should be remembered that there have already been 85 million births and 36 million deaths in the world since the beginning of 2020:
– 8.5 million deaths related to cardiovascular diseases
– 5.5 million deaths related to malnutrition.
– 5 million deaths related to cancer,
– 3 million smoking-related deaths,
– 1.5 million alcohol-related deaths,
– 1 million AIDS deaths,
– 950,000 deaths from diabetes
– 810,000 traffic accident deaths,
– 760,000 deaths from tuberculosis
– 723,000 deaths Covid-19
– 646,000 suicides.
– 591,000 malaria deaths.
These data are estimates taken from WHO annual statistics and related to the period under consideration (7 months). To this could be added deaths related to infectious diseases (excluding Covid) which can be counted in the millions, and direct and indirect deaths related to military or economic interference by Western countries in the Near and Middle East or Latin America.
With regard to Covid deaths, it should be remembered that the numbers declared are very uncertain. Some developing countries do not have the means to collect reliable information. Others underestimate the number of deaths by, for example, voluntarily or involuntarily forgetting to count deaths at home, others greatly overestimate this number by attributing to the Covid alone the deaths of very many patients suffering from multiple pathologies (including “old age”). Several of these pathologies, other than Covid, have often been the primary cause of death.
Situation by continent, sub-continent and countries most affected
1 – Asia
China continues to do well. With 273 new cases reported in 1 week, 843 patients still under treatment, including 36 serious cases, and 0 new deaths, it remains in a much better situation than a European continent, although half as populated, which has largely deconfined but which still reports nearly 136,000 new cases/week (a very significant increase), more than 1.1 million patients under treatment (up), including 5,160 critical cases (up +50), and which recorded 2,294 deaths in 1 week (-61). China is still doing better than Belgium, a country with which we have reopened our borders without the slightest concern, and which nevertheless has 15 times more new cases (4,010), twice as many critical cases (65) and many more new deaths than China (which has not reported any) over the past week.
Western Asia (India, Iran and neighbouring countries) is accounting for most of the losses in Asia. It should be noted that Iran is still a country under “maximum” economic sanctions by the USA (to the benefit of Israel) and that this duo and their sanctions are, more or less well, but slavishly followed by their European vassals (who hypocritically defend themselves against them). The Covid mortality rate in Iran is, without a doubt, the worst in Asia, but the mortality rates per million inhabitants of the Western executioners of the Iranian people (USA, France, UK) are two to three times worse, and among the worst in the world (already more than 3 times the death toll of the whole Vietnam War for the USA) .
Table showing the situation and losses for the ten Asian countries with more than 1,500 deaths.
2 – North America
Yesterday, the USA alone accounted for 22.8% of new Covid cases worldwide. They also reported nearly 22.7% of the total losses of the epidemic (China 0.64%). The number of weekly deaths fell slightly to 7,339. The number of patients undergoing treatment exceeded 2.31 million and continues to increase (+93,000 last week). The number of critical cases, at over 18,000, is slightly down. The USA is still not at the end of its losses.
Canada, for its part, seems almost out of the woods with 35 deaths for the entire past week. Its mortality rate since the beginning of the epidemic is half that of the USA and its situation continues to improve. However, the number of critical cases remains high at 2,263 (a very slight increase of +23).
3 – Latin America
This week, it has surpassed the 200 000 reported deaths and surpassed Europe in terms of the total number of victims and the mortality rate per million inhabitants.
The situation in Brazil is still not improving. All indicators remain in the red. The number of new cases (3rd in the world behind the USA and India with 18.1% of new cases worldwide) and the number of critical cases (3rd behind the USA and India at 8,318) remain very high. The number of daily deaths has fallen back behind that of the USA. Brazil is still in the hardest part of the epidemic. Deaths above 1000/day should still be the norm in the coming days.
In Mexico, the number of weekly deaths was 4,517, and is rising significantly. This country is still in the throes of the epidemic. Together with Brazil, the USA and India, it is expected to account for more than 50% of the world’s deaths in the coming days.
In Latin America, human losses are concentrated in ten states that report 98% of “Latino” deaths and more than 1,500 deaths each. Other countries in the Caribbean and South America are still largely untouched by the epidemic.
Only South Africa is in a worrying situation, with a sharp increase in the number of new cases and deaths. Together with Egypt, Algeria, Nigeria and Sudan, it accounts for nearly 80% of African deaths.
5 – Europe
Despite alarmist statements by politicians and the mainstream media in some EU countries, it is clear that while the circulation of the virus remains high and is increasing, the number of reported deaths continues to fall and the number of serious cases remains below 5 200 for the whole continent, half of which is in Russia. The lethality of the virus has therefore fallen considerably in Europe.
The real situation in the United Kingdom in deconfinement “seems” to be gradually improving. Thus, the number of critical cases “would be” only 69 (5.5 times less than that of France). This very low number of critical cases seems to show that it is possible to die from the Covid-19 in the United Kingdom without ever passing through the “critical state” stage or by only passing through it for a few minutes. The weekly loss level remains the second highest in Europe behind that of Russia, with a total of 392 deaths this week. Total losses are and will remain by far the highest in Europe and are expected to approach 50,000 deaths at the end of the epidemic.
The situation in Italy is stable: a slight reduction in critical cases, but an increase in new cases and patients under treatment. The number of deaths remains low. (49 in one week).
France world champion
The situation in France is no longer really improving. Its weekly number of new cases is rising significantly (+10,000). Its number of critical cases is up very slightly (+14, to 384, in one week). 59 deaths over the week. Its Covid mortality rate is, to date, 464 deaths per million inhabitants (excluding deaths at home), for a world average of 92.7. In terms of the number of deaths, France is and will remain in third place in Europe behind the United Kingdom and Italy and ahead of Spain.
In terms of Covid “lethality” (number of deaths / number of confirmed cases), France remains “world champion” with a rate of 15.32%. (worldwide Covid lethality: 3.71%, and European lethality: 6.84%). It is true that, apart from a few local exceptions (Marseille and Garche in particular), France has tested too little for too long, treated too many patients too late and relied too much on Doliprane and “spontaneous cure” to be able to hope to save a maximum number of lives.
The results of the research announced at the beginning of the epidemic are still awaited as the epidemic comes to an end. Because it is finally testing more than before, France is discovering more and more new cases (+ 10 002 in 1 week,). This enables it to acquire a better knowledge of the circulation of the virus, to apply targeted isolation measures for the cases and outbreaks detected, and to treat them as soon as possible.
6.3% of the French population has been tested, for the majority during the deconfinement. The Germans tested 10.3% of their population, the Canadians 11.4%, the Italians 11.8%, the Portuguese 16.7%, the Americans 19.2%, the Russians 20.6% and the Danes 29% by applying tests at the beginning of the epidemic. Thanks to the great effort made over the last 7 weeks, France has climbed from the depths to 64th place in the world for the number of tests per million inhabitants. So there is “something better”…, even if this result cannot be described as good.
France remains, after Russia, the European country which declares the most patients under treatment (more than 85,000). This number is increasing significantly (+ 8,983 in 1 week). France is also lagging behind in terms of cures (41.7% of confirmed cases). It does less well than Senegal which has cured 66% of its patients, Morocco which has cured 70.3%, and Russia which has cured 78% (note that these 3 countries have used, with more than fifty other countries, treatment protocols inspired by that of the Marseille IHU).
France has healed less than Italy which has healed 80.7% of its confirmed cases, Iran which has healed 86.7%, Switzerland 87.1% and Austria 90.2%, Germany which has already sent 90.9% of its patients home, Turkey which has healed 93% etc. The global cure rate for confirmed cases is now 64.2%, even though a majority of countries entered the epidemic well after us. The European rate is 60.2%: it should be much better at this stage of the epidemic. France is therefore, together with Belgium, the country that is pulling this European indicator down the most.
The rebellious spirit
The only country in the world to have “prohibited” the prescription of chloroquine to treat Covid, following the Lancet’s acknowledged fraudulent study, a study curiously applauded by our politicians and our media, we can think that French governance, “certainly much less corrupt and much more subtle than all the other governments in the world” (a beacon of humanity), has taken this prohibition measure to better promote the product. Knowing the rebellious spirit of the French, the very clear-sighted Minister of Health would therefore ban chloroquine to better encourage its consumption (as in the United States at the time of “prohibition” which caused an explosion in alcohol consumption or as in the time of Louis XVI with the promotion of the potato guarded by soldiers during the day, and stolen by the French at night, for their consumption. Mr Véran would therefore be, for chloroquine, the clever Parmentier of the 21st century: hats off to the artist!
Spain declares only 58 deaths in one week, but the number of new cases is rising sharply (+ 25,840 in one week) and the number of critical cases (617) is not falling. Strange. Unless chloroquine, which is widely used in Spain, also works miracles there or the hope of saving the tourist season encourages Spanish health officials to minimise losses.
The situation in Germany is improving: more cures than new cases. The number of critical cases is falling. The number of deaths remains very low (29 in 1 week). Germany has eight times fewer patients undergoing treatment than France for a much higher number of confirmed cases.
Russia is testing a lot
With a mortality rate of 850 deaths per million inhabitants, Belgium will remain the undisputed leader in this indicator (excluding micro-States). The number of new cases is still high for a country of 11 million inhabitants (+ 4,010 in 1 week, an increase of 25% compared to last week). The number of patients under treatment continues to rise (44,455 today, i.e. 3,800 more in one week). It is also high in relation to the population. The Belgian cure rate is one of the lowest in the world (only 24.6% of reported cases to date). Belgium therefore still remains the most active focus of the epidemic in Western Europe. It should be noted that Belgians declare Covid deaths at home, which some of its neighbours do not do.
In Russia, more than one inhabitant out of five has been tested, which represents the second highest screening rate in the world (excluding microstates), hence the still high number of new cases declared (9th behind the USA, India, Brazil, Colombia, Peru, Argentina, South Africa and Mexico with 5,241 cases yesterday). With 178,800 patients under treatment, Russia is in 4th position behind the USA, Brazil and India. However, this number is rapidly decreasing as the number of cures now far exceeds the number of new cases.
The number of daily deaths is decreasing. The Russian death rate per million inhabitants has reached 101. It is still almost five times lower than in France. Because it detects quickly, isolates and treats without delay, and because it applies a strategy and protocol inspired by those of the Marseille IHU, Russia has already cured 78% of its confirmed cases, i.e. nearly 684,000 patients. However, it entered the epidemic round one month after France, which has only cured 41.7% of its confirmed cases, i.e. 82,500 patients. Russia should declare, at the end of the epidemic, a mortality rate per million inhabitants close to that of Germany, a country that has managed the Covid health crisis rather well.
The epidemic is growing there but the continent is still largely spared. Out of 42 million inhabitants, it has so far reported 22,142 cases of which 12,826 have already been cured. There are still 9,024 “active” cases, of which only 51 are serious or critical. The continent of Oceania declared 70 deaths this week. Its Covid mortality rate is 7 per million inhabitants (France 464).
The mortality rates per million inhabitants of the 34 countries with more than 2,000 deaths, in the table below, gives an idea of the most affected geographical areas and/or countries.
Un tableau présente ci après les bilans des 34 pays ayant déclaré plus de 2 000 décès (95% des pertes).
Data table on Europe (and EU) response to the epidemic
Reminder: global Covid mortality rate: 92.8 deaths / Million inhabitants (and European 275 deaths/M)