General (2s) Dominique Delawarde, a former intelligence officer specializing in international issues, particularly the United States, provides a weekly analysis of the evolution of the Covid-19 epidemic at the national and international level.
Situation report for Saturday 15 August 0:00 GMT
Since the beginning of the epidemic
214 countries or territories were affected by the virus, for 21,335,702 reported cases (+ 1,803,170 in 1 week).
762,427 (+ 39,243 in 1 week); The British having subtracted 5,303 deaths from their total, and therefore from the overall total, the losses for the week, measured country by country, were 39,243 + 5,303 or 44,546. They were the heaviest in a long time.
14,125,685 recoveries (+ 1,587,831 in 1 week);
6,447,590 patients undergoing treatment (+ 176,196 in 1 week), including 64,555 in critical condition (- 576 in 1 week)
Please note that
6 countries or territories would still be unaffected by the epidemic to date.
12 countries or territories that were affected are no longer affected. 16 others that had eradicated the epidemic at one time or another have “fallen back into it” ….
The evolution of reported losses over the past week can be summarized in a table: It shows how low mortality remains in Oceania and Africa, how stable it is stabilizing in Europe and rebounding in the United States, how it is still rising in Latin America and deteriorating further in Western Asia (India and neighbouring countries).
– 34 countries have reported more than 2,000 deaths since the beginning of the epidemic. In order of loss: USA, Brazil, Mexico, India, United Kingdom, Italy, France, Spain, Peru, Iran, Russia, Colombia, South Africa, Chile, Belgium, Germany, Canada, Netherlands, Pakistan, Ecuador, Turkey, Indonesia, Sweden, Iraq, Egypt, Argentina, China, Bolivia, Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia, Romania, Philippines, Guatemala, Ukraine.
– Of the 762,427 deaths in the epidemic worldwide, 720,816 (94.5%) occurred in these 34 countries.
Worldwide, the pandemic continues unabated. The number of deaths (44,546 in one week) is rising sharply and the number of critical cases (64,555) has fallen slightly for the second consecutive week. With 1.8 million new cases/week reported, contamination remains stable and at a high level worldwide.
The epidemic has stopped its downward trend in Europe, the circulation of the virus has started to increase again, but the virus appears to be much less lethal: (nearly 120,000 new cases in one week), still more than 1.2 million patients undergoing treatment (if we take into account the countries that no longer report them: UK, Spain, Sweden and the Netherlands); 5,183 critical cases (+23 in one week)). The virus continues to spread in West Asia (India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran) and Africa (South Africa, Egypt). The 23 million cases and 800,000 deaths are expected next week.
Over the past week, and for the third consecutive week, the US has reported more deaths than Brazil. Yet Latin America remains the epicentre of the epidemic, with nearly three times the losses in Northern America (USA+Canada). Of the 44,288 deaths in the past week, 21,441 are Latin American, 7,511 are US or Canadian and 2,483 are European. The situation is getting worse and worse in West Asia. Countries in the region now account for more than 30% of new cases worldwide (78,000 new cases/day).
Current status of the number of cases and deaths by major region of the world
Yesterday’s heaviest balance sheets remain those of the USA, Brazil, Mexico and India. These four countries alone accounted for 67% of new cases, 66% of new deaths and 59.1% of the world’s critical cases yesterday.
Oceania, Africa and Asia still have very low mortality rates and account for around 19% of global losses, even though they account for 77% of the world’s population. Europe and the Americas (North and South) account for nearly 81% of the losses for less than 23% of the world’s population. The shares of Europe and North America are gradually declining. The shares of Latin America, Africa and (Western) Asia are increasing.
In order to put the human toll of the pandemic in 2020 into perspective, it should be remembered that since the beginning of the year 2020, there have already been 87 million births, 26.5 million abortions and 36.7 million deaths in the world:
– 8.5 million deaths related to cardiovascular diseases
– 5.5 million deaths related to malnutrition.
– 5.1 million deaths related to cancer,
– 3.1 million smoking-related deaths,
– 1.55 million alcohol-related deaths,
– 1.05 million AIDS deaths,
– 950,000 deaths from diabetes
– 900,000 deaths from tuberculosis
– 840,000 traffic accident deaths,
– 762,500 deaths Covid-19
– 666,000 suicides
– 610,000 malaria deaths.
These data are estimates taken from WHO annual statistics and related to the period under consideration (7.5 months). To this could be added deaths related to infectious diseases (excluding Covid) which are counted in the millions and direct and indirect deaths related to military or economic interference by Western countries in the Near and Middle East or Latin America.
With regard to Covid deaths, it should be remembered that the numbers declared are very uncertain. The examples of the United Kingdom, which subtracted 5,303 deaths from its total on 12 August, or Spain, which did the same last June, are there to prove it. Some developing countries do not have the means to collect reliable information. Others underestimate the number of deaths by forgetting, for example, voluntarily or not, to count deaths at home, others strongly overestimate this number by attributing to Covid alone, the deaths of very many patients suffering from multiple pathologies (including old age). Several of these pathologies, other than Covid, have often been the primary cause of death.
Situation by continent, sub-continent and most affected countries
1 – Asia
China continues to do well. With 221 new cases reported in 1 week, 690 patients still under treatment, including 39 serious cases, and 0 new deaths, it remains in a much better situation than a European continent, although half as populated, which has largely deconfined but which still reports nearly 136,000 new cases/week (a very significant increase), more than 1.2 million patients under treatment (up), including 5,197 critical cases (up +37), and which recorded 2,294 deaths in 1 week (-61). China is still doing better than Belgium, a country with which we have reopened our borders without the slightest concern, and which nevertheless has 19 times more new cases (4,175), twice as many critical cases (65) and many more new deaths than China (which has not reported any) over the past week.
Western Asia (India, Iran and neighbouring countries) is accounting for most of the losses in Asia. It should be noted that Iran is still a country under “maximum” economic sanctions by the USA (to the benefit of Israel).
Table showing the situation and losses of the ten Asian countries that have exceeded 1 500 deaths.
2 – North America
Yesterday, the USA alone accounted for 21.8% of new Covid cases worldwide. They also reported nearly 22.5% of the total losses of the epidemic (China 0.61%). The number of weekly deaths rose slightly to 7,462. The number of patients undergoing treatment exceeded 2.43 million and continues to rise (+ 122,000 last week). The number of critical cases, at nearly 17,200, is declining. The USA is still not at the end of its losses.
Canada, for its part, seems almost out of the woods with 49 deaths for the entire past week. Its mortality rate since the beginning of the epidemic is half that of the USA and its situation continues to improve. However, the number of critical cases remains high at 2,291 (very slight increase of +28 in 1 week).
3 – Latin America
With nearly 237,000 reported deaths, Latin America is by far the part of the world most affected by the epidemic (total number of victims and mortality rate per million inhabitants).
The situation in Brazil is still not improving. All indicators remain in the red. The number of new cases (3rd in the world behind India and the USA and with 17.8% of new cases worldwide) and the number of critical cases (3rd behind the USA and India at 8,318) remain high. The number of daily deaths has fallen back behind that of the USA. Brazil is still in the hardest part of the epidemic. Deaths in excess of 1,000/day should still be the norm in the coming days.
In Mexico, the weekly number of deaths was 4,776. It is rising. This country is still in the midst of a severe epidemic. Together with Brazil, the USA and India, it is expected to account for nearly 60% of the world’s deaths in the coming days.
In Latin America, the human losses are concentrated in ten states that account for 98% of “Latino” deaths and more than 1,600 deaths each. Other countries in the Caribbean and South America are still relatively untouched by the epidemic.
Only South Africa is in a worrying situation, with a sharp increase in the number of new cases and deaths. Together with Egypt, Algeria, Nigeria and Sudan, it accounts for nearly 80% of African deaths.
5 – Europe
Despite alarmist statements by politicians and the mainstream media in some EU countries, it has to be said that, although the circulation of the virus remains high and is increasing, the number of reported deaths is not really increasing and the number of serious cases remains below 5 200 for the whole continent, half of them in Russia. The lethality of the virus has therefore fallen considerably in Europe.
The real situation in the United Kingdom in deconfinement “seems” to be gradually improving. Thus, the number of critical cases “would be” only 80 (4.5 times less than that of France). The level of weekly losses remains the 2nd in Europe behind that of Russia, with a total of 150 deaths this week). Total losses are and will remain, by far, the highest in Europe and should exceed 45,000 deaths at the end of the epidemic. A downward correction of 5,303 deaths occurred on 12 August.
The situation in Italy is stable: a slight reduction in critical cases, but an increase in new cases (+3,053) and patients under treatment (+1,325). The number of deaths remains low. (44 in one week).
France world champion
The situation in France is no longer really improving. Its weekly number of new cases is rising significantly (+14,290). Its number of critical cases is down (-16, to 367, in one week); 82 deaths over the week. Its Covid mortality rate is, to date, 466 deaths per million inhabitants (excluding deaths at home), for a world average of 97.8 . In terms of the number of deaths, France is and will remain in third place in Europe behind the United Kingdom and Italy and ahead of Spain.
In terms of Covid “lethality” (no. of deaths / no. of confirmed cases), France remains world champion with a rate of 14.32%. (worldwide Covid lethality: 3.58%, and European lethality: 6.47%).
It is true that, apart from a few local exceptions (Marseille and Garche in particular), France has tested too little for too long, treated too many patients too late and relied too much on Doliprane and spontaneous recovery to be able to hope to save a maximum number of lives.
The results of the research announced at the beginning of the epidemic are still awaited as it comes to an end. Because it is finally testing more than before, France is discovering more and more new cases (+ 14,290 in 1 week). This enables it to acquire a better knowledge of the circulation of the virus, to apply targeted isolation measures for the cases and outbreaks detected, and to treat them as soon as possible.
9.2% of the French were tested, the majority of them during the deconfinement. The Germans tested 10.3% of their population, the Canadians 12.3%, the Italians 12.4%, the Portuguese 17.7%, the Americans 21%, the Russians 21.9%, and the Danes 32.3% by applying tests at the beginning of the epidemic. Thanks to the great effort made over the last two months, France has risen from the depths to 52nd place in the world for the number of tests per million inhabitants. So there is “something better”…, even if this result cannot be described as good.
France remains, after Russia, the European country that declares the most patients under treatment (98,000). This number is increasing significantly (+ 13,250 in 1 week).
France is also lagging behind in terms of cures (39.5% of confirmed cases). It does less well than Senegal which has cured 64.1% of its patients, Morocco which has cured 70.5%, and Russia which has cured 79.2% (note that these 3 countries have used, with more than fifty other countries, treatment protocols inspired by that of the Marseille IHU). France has healed less than Italy, which has healed 80.4% of its confirmed cases, Iran, which has healed 86.7%, Switzerland 87.3% and Austria 89.6%, Germany, which has already sent 89.7% of its patients home, Turkey, which has healed 92.8%, etc. The global cure rate for confirmed cases is now 66.1%, even though a majority of countries entered the epidemic well after us. The European rate is 60.4%: it should be much better at this stage of the epidemic. France is therefore, along with Belgium, the country that is pulling this European indicator down the most.
Belgium, a bad pupil
Spain reports only 114 deaths in one week, but the number of new cases is rising sharply (+2,987 yesterday) and the number of critical cases (617) is not falling. The situation in Germany is no longer improving: more new cases than cures. The number of critical cases is falling slightly (-12 in one week). The number of deaths remains very low (35 in one week). Germany has seven times fewer patients undergoing treatment than France for a much higher number of confirmed cases.
With a mortality rate of 855 deaths per million inhabitants, Belgium will remain the undisputed leader in this indicator (excluding micro-States). The number of new cases is still high for a country of 11 million inhabitants (+4,176 in 1 week, a very slight increase compared to last week). The number of patients under treatment continues to rise (48,362 today, i.e. 3,900 more in one week). It is also high in relation to the population. The Belgian cure rate is one of the lowest in the world (only 24.6% of reported cases to date). Belgium therefore still remains the most active focus of the epidemic in Western Europe. It should be noted that Belgians declare Covid deaths at home, which some of its neighbours do not do.
Russia is testing a lot
In Russia, 22% of the population has been tested, which is the second highest screening rate in the world (excluding microstates), resulting in a still high number of newly reported cases (5,065 cases yesterday). With 174,000 patients under treatment, Russia is in 4th position behind the USA, Brazil and India. But this number is rapidly decreasing because the number of cures now greatly exceeds the number of new cases.
The number of daily deaths is falling. The Russian death rate per million inhabitants has reached 106. It is still nearly 4.5 times lower than in France. Because it detects quickly, isolates and treats without delay, and because it applies a strategy and protocol inspired by those of the Marseille IHU, Russia has already cured 79.2% of its confirmed cases, i.e. nearly 723,000 patients. However, Russia entered the epidemic round one month after France, which only cured 39.9% of its confirmed cases, or 85,000 patients.
Russia has therefore managed the Covid health crisis rather well. Moreover, it has just started mass production of a vaccine after having passed the stages of its validation. Brazil has already acquired it.
Here is the testimony of a former Saint Cyrian and French paratrooper officer, now living in Russia, on the management of the Covid crisis in that country.
6 – Oceania
The epidemic is slowly gaining momentum, but the continent is still largely unaffected. Out of 42 million inhabitants, it has so far reported 24,806 cases of which 15,065 have already been cured. There are still 9,340 “active” cases, of which only 49 are serious or critical. The continent of Oceania declared 109 deaths this week. Its Covid mortality rate is 10 per million inhabitants (France 466).
The mortality rates per million inhabitants of the 34 countries with more than 2,000 deaths, in the table below, gives an idea of the most affected geographical areas and/or countries.
A table below shows the balance sheets of the 34 countries that reported more than 2,000 deaths (95% of the losses).
Data table on Europe (and EU) response to the epidemic
Reminder: World Covid mortality rate: 97.8 deaths / Million inhabitants (and European 271 deaths/M)