General (2s) Dominique Delawarde, a former intelligence officer specializing in international issues and particularly in the United States, delivers every fortnight a precise analysis of the evolution of the Covid-19 epidemic at the national and international level.
Analysis of the numbers of deaths reported by the states shows that the epidemic has not grown significantly worldwide in the last two weeks, although two specific regions have seen a slight increase in the number of deaths, which is far from alarming. These two regions in which the situation is deteriorating very slightly are Latin America and Europe. In Europe, five countries are more affected than others by this deterioration. (Spain, France, Ukraine, Romania and, to a lesser degree, the United Kingdom).
For Spain, it is very likely that the number of deaths and the indicators of the epidemic were lowered by the authorities last June, in order not to worry the “tourist” candidates and to save the summer season. The numbers declared were so low that I was surprised several times in my situation bulletins. Reassured by the good Spanish indicators, tourists came en masse to a country where the situation was probably not what the authorities declared. The tourists therefore brought home a virus that was still circulating very strongly in Spain in June, July and August.
France, for its part, has largely reopened its borders with all European countries, without distinction, including the 2 most important “cluster countries” of the continent which are, since the beginning of the epidemic, Belgium and Spain, both bordering France. As a transit zone between the North and South of Europe, France naturally saw the circulation of the virus explode during the summer, all the more so since after 55 days of confinement, the young French people let loose.
Belgium, which was much less “cheated” than others, has always appeared as a cluster country with a very high circulation of the virus.
It must be realized that, if the number of deaths is increasing in Europe today, this increase is mainly due to the number of deaths reported by these 5 countries. The situation in the rest of Europe is more or less stable and sometimes even improving. Concerning the deaths declared by France, 76 additional deaths were declared on September 18 as a regularization of the previous weeks. A poor follow-up is therefore partly the cause of this sudden increase in French deaths.
After the open letter published in the newspaper “Le Parisien” and signed by 35 professors and researchers, here are 325 doctors, 1,303 health professionals and 8,476 Belgian citizens signing, in their turn, a very interesting open letter to the authorities and the media of their country.
Finally, during a hearing at the Senate of Professor Didier Raoult, where he once again showed his immense mastery of the subject and his talent as a teacher, some senators thought it would be good to showcase their science, directly taken from articles and rumors misinterpreted and conveyed by the mainstream media.
For example, one of them, relying on some condescending statements by Western scientists, questioned whether “the quality of Chinese science should not be questioned”. However, according to the comparative results of Western management of the epidemic with that of China, “Western scientists and politicians” should play “low profile”.
As for the senator who conveyed their message to us, he should know that the “enlightened” part of the public opinion does not accept to hear such enormity anymore. The Chinese are the first to have landed on the dark side of the moon, the first to have developed an operational 5G. In 2018 and 2019, they have successfully carried out more orbital launches than the USA. The omnipresence of artificial intelligence and hospitals better equipped than ours have largely contributed to their success in managing the epidemic. Their economy is in full swing. They have, it seems, found the means to treat Covid cases since the last Chinese death reported was on April 3. So a little more modesty and a little less condescension should be the order of the day for our parliamentarians and scientists who should realize that our poor management of the epidemic is causing a lot of foreign media to report on it to our detriment. The myth of a Western science and medicine that is superior to others, conquering and invincible has collapsed in the sad image that the West has given of itself in the management of this epidemic and in the human, economic and social results that will follow.
“He forgot to say… “
Another senator read us a list of state agencies that have spoken out against the use of chloroquine in different countries to treat Covid-19. This list had most probably and judiciously been prepared for him by a lobbyist of Big Pharma. What this Senator forgot to say is that these statements by state agencies were made, for the most part, after the publication of the fraudulent Lancet study, followed by a WHO recommendation, both of which have since been retracted, but that no state in the world other than France has banned its doctors from prescribing this or that drug for the treatment of Covid.
He forgot to say that in all the states using chloroquine, which temporarily suspended its use to follow the WHO recommendation, the mortality rate immediately increased until its use was reinstated, at which point it dropped again.
He forgot to say that in the USA, a federal state with 50 states in the Union, the management of the epidemic is managed independently by each of these 50 states. One third of these states chose to apply the Marseille IHU protocol and obtained much lower mortality rates than all the states that did not make this choice.
It also forgot to say that all the States that have massively used chloroquine and its derivatives, in green on the map below, have had derisory mortality rates compared to those of the countries, in red, that have done so only very partially or not at all.
Finally, he forgot to say that 102 studies have been carried out on chloroquine around the world https://c19study.com/; that 75% of them concluded that its use at the beginning of the disease and at the right dose reduced mortality; that for the other studies, subsidized by Big Pharma, the conditions of the studies were either fraudulent (study published in the Lancet) or biased.
In the European study called “Discovery”, medical teams administered 3 times the dose of hydroxychloroquine (2400mg) instead of 800 recommended by the IHU team of Marseille (thus a toxic overdose) to patients at the end of life (thus too late) with the sole aim of discrediting the drug. Those who developed this “exterminator” project were therefore not scientists worthy of the name. They deliberately carried out, for the sole benefit of Big Pharma, serial killer actions, poisoning patients at the end of life, by overdosing the drug that the study was to discredit.
In short, the “good?” Senator Bernard JOMIER would have benefited from keeping quiet rather than trying to spread knowledge he does not have and to maintain a polemic on the basis of faulty arguments. To conclude, here is the last point of the IHU of Marseille on the evolution of the epidemic: dated September 22, it is very interesting and was viewed by 500,000 people in two days.
Contrary to our “National Scientific Council” and our executive, the Marseille IHU does not seem “stressed” by the arrival of a much less lethal epidemic and the return of a virus that has mutated and weakened.
Situation report of Saturday 26 Sept 0h00 GMT
Since the beginning of the epidemic
214 countries or territories were affected by the virus, for 32,743,140 reported cases (+ 2,057,979 in 1 week).
992,864 deaths (+37,134 in 1 week); 24,163,707 recoveries (+1,834,549 in 1 week).
7,586,569 patients undergoing treatment (+186,558 in one week), including 63,740 in critical condition (+2,441 in one week).
– 34 countries have reported more than 2,400 deaths since the beginning of the epidemic: in order of loss:
(USA, Brazil, India, Mexico, United Kingdom, Italy, Peru, France, Spain, Iran, Colombia, Russia, South Africa, Argentina, Chile, Ecuador, Belgium, Germany, Indonesia, Canada, Iraq, Bolivia, Turkey, Pakistan, Netherlands, Sweden, Egypt, Philippines, Bangladesh, China, Romania, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine, Guatemala.
Of the 992,864 deaths from the epidemic recorded worldwide, 935,325 were in these 34 countries (94.2%).
On a global scale, the pandemic is experiencing a slight upsurge. The number of deaths (37,129 in one week) and critical cases (63,740) are on the rise. With 2.06 million new cases/week reported, the rate of contamination is on the rise.
The evolution of reported losses over the past weeks can be summarized in a table:
On reading it, one realizes to what extent mortality remains very low and is declining in Oceania and Africa, to what extent it is also declining in the United States, stabilizing in Western Asia and deteriorating very slightly in Latin America and Europe. India is becoming the country with the highest losses in the world, but Latin America still remains the epicenter of the epidemic.
The circulation of the virus has started to increase in Europe, but it is much less lethal: (nearly 395,000 new cases in one week), more than 2.2 million patients undergoing treatment (including countries that no longer report them: UK, Spain, Sweden and the Netherlands); 7,926 critical cases (+956 in 1 week) for 3,886 deaths (+351 in 1 week).
– The virus continues to spread slowly in West Asia (India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran). It is declining in Africa (South Africa, Egypt). As reported more than a month ago, the 32.5 million cases have passed the 32.5 million mark and the one million death mark will be passed in 2 days. At the current rate of evolution of the epidemic the milestones of 46 million cases and 1.2 million deaths will be crossed in 6 weeks (November 7) just after the U.S. election.
In the past week, India has reported more deaths than the US and Brazil. Latin America, however, remains the epicenter of the epidemic, with more than 2.5 times the losses in Northern America (USA+Canada). Of the 37,129 deaths in the past week, 14,282 are Latin American, 12,480 are West Asian, 5,226 are US or Canadian and 3,886 are European. The situation appears to be improving in West Asia. Countries in the region now account for only 31.2% of new cases worldwide (98,000 new cases/day).
Current status of the number of cases and deaths by major region of the world
The heaviest balance sheets of yesterday are still those of India, the USA, Brazil and Mexico. These four countries alone reported yesterday: 55.5% of new cases, 56.5% of new deaths and 53.4% of critical cases in the world.
Oceania, Africa and Asia still have very low mortality rates and a share of global losses of 22%, even though they account for 77% of the population. Europe and the American continent (North and South) account for 78% of the losses for less than 23% of the world’s population. The shares of Europe, North America and Africa are gradually declining. The shares of Latin America and (Western) Asia are increasing.
To put the human toll of the 2020 pandemic into perspective, it should be remembered that since the beginning of 2020, in nine months, there have already been 103 million births, 31.4 million abortions and 43.3 million deaths in the world, including:
– 11 million deaths related to cardiovascular diseases.
– 8 million deaths related to malnutrition.
– 6 million deaths related to cancer,
– 3.7 million smoking-related deaths,
– 2.56 million lower respiratory infections
– 1.75 million alcohol-related deaths,
– 1.25 million AIDS deaths,
– 1.2 million deaths from diabetes
– 1.1 million deaths from tuberculosis
– 994,000 traffic accident deaths,
– 993,000 deaths “with” Covid-19
– 790,000 suicides
These data are estimates taken from WHO annual statistics and related to the period under consideration (9 months). To this could be added deaths related to other infectious diseases (excluding Covid), which can be counted in the millions, and direct and indirect deaths related to military interference or economic sanctions by Western countries in the Near and Middle East or Latin America.
Still to put things into perspective, the comparison with the other major global epidemics of the last century is edifying:
Finally, France records, on average, 11,750 deaths per week, all causes combined. Last week, 471 people, most of them very old, died “with” the Covid-19, which represents 4% of the weekly deaths.
With regard to Covid deaths, it should be remembered that the numbers reported are very uncertain. The examples of the United Kingdom, which subtracted 5,303 deaths from its total on August 12, or Spain, which did the same last June, and Colombia and Bolivia, which added a few thousand deaths to their figures at the beginning of September, are there to prove it. Some developing countries do not have the means to collect reliable information. Others underestimate the number of deaths by forgetting, for example, voluntarily or not, to count deaths at home, others strongly overestimate this number by attributing to Covid alone, the deaths of very many patients suffering from multiple pathologies (including “old age”). Several of these pathologies, other than Covid, were often the primary cause of death.
Situation by continent, sub-continent, and countries most affected
1 – North America :
Yesterday, the USA alone reported 16.2% of the new Covid cases on the planet. They also reported nearly 21% of the total losses of the epidemic (China 0.47%) The number of weekly deaths is down to 5,176. The number of patients being treated exceeds 2.55 million and continues to increase (+25,000/week). The number of critical cases decreased by 200 to nearly 14,164. The lethality of the epidemic is declining in the United States.
Canada, for its part, seems almost out of the woods with 50 deaths for the whole of the past week. Its mortality rate since the beginning of the epidemic is 2.5 times lower than that of the USA and its situation is stable. The number of reported critical cases is 97 (a slight increase).
2 – Latin America :
With more than 334,000 reported deaths, Latin America is by far the part of the world most affected by the epidemic in terms of the total number of victims and the second highest mortality rate per million inhabitants.
The situation in Brazil is beginning to improve. The number of new cases is declining (3rd in the world behind India and the USA, with only 10.4% of new cases worldwide) and the number of critical cases (3rd behind the USA and India at 8,318) remains high. The number of daily deaths has fallen behind that of India and the USA. Brazil has passed the epidemic peak. Deaths below 850/day should now be the norm in the coming days and weeks.
In Mexico, the number of deaths was 3,260 in one week. It is declining. This country has passed the epidemic peak. Together with Brazil, the USA and India, it should still record more than 50% of the world’s deaths in the coming weeks.
In Latin America, the human losses are concentrated in ten states which report 98% of “Latino” deaths and more than 2,250 deaths each. Other countries in the Caribbean and South America are still relatively untouched by the epidemic.
3 – Asia :
East and Southeast Asia (China, Japan, Vietnam, both Koreas, Taiwan, Philippines, Indonesia, Laos, Cambodia, Malaysia, Burma …) is relatively unaffected by the pandemic. China continues to do well. With 67 new cases declared in 1 week, 166 patients still under treatment including 4 serious cases, and 0 new deaths, China has almost eradicated the epidemic on its soil.
Indonesia, the most affected country in East Asia, has a derisory mortality rate of 37 deaths per million inhabitants. Taiwan, the least affected, reports a mortality rate of 0.3 per million hours. Japan, on the other hand, reports 1,525 deaths per 126 million hours, or 12 deaths per million hours.
It is therefore West Asia (India, Iran and neighboring Middle Eastern countries) that is recording the bulk of the losses in Asia. It should be noted that Iran is still a country under “maximum” economic sanctions by the USA (to the benefit of Israel) and has the highest mortality rate in Asia at 299 deaths/million h. However, this rate remains much lower than the rates on the American and European continents.
Table showing the situation and losses for the ten Asian countries with more than 1,700 deaths.
4 – Africa :
Only South Africa is in a worrying situation with a number of new cases and deaths that represent half of those of the continent. Together with Egypt, Morocco, Algeria, Ethiopia and Nigeria, it accounts for nearly 80% of African deaths.
5 – Europe:
A progressive deterioration of the epidemic situation, still on a small scale, can be observed there. Most of the 3,886 European deaths reported are in a handful of countries, with, in order: Russia (861), Spain (737), France (412), Ukraine (359), Romania (273), United Kingdom (204). For the other 42 European countries or territories, the increase in the number of deaths is much less significant.
The situation in the United Kingdom “seems” to be deteriorating. Thus, the number of critical cases “would be” rising sharply to 243 (but 4 times lower than in France). The level of weekly losses is rising to 204 reported deaths, which remains derisory. Total losses are and will remain by far the highest in Europe and should exceed 45,000 deaths at the end of the epidemic.
The situation in Italy is stable: a slight increase in critical cases to 244 (+36 in one week), which remains derisory. The number of new cases (+11,303 in one week) remains low compared to France (+84,338) and the number of patients under treatment is increasing (+5,261 in one week). The number of deaths remains very low (133 in one week). Italy seems to have a good handle on the current situation.
The situation in France is slowly deteriorating. Its weekly number of new cases is exploding (+ 84,338). But the number of new cases is not a determining factor in characterizing the lethality of an epidemic. Detecting tens of thousands of healthy carriers, or even false positives, is of interest only to define the perimeter of the epidemic, and thus avoid, through targeted measures, an excessively large spread. The two most relevant indicators are the number of critical cases which is on the rise (+271 in one week) and the number of deaths: 412 over the week (+56 compared to last week, but 76 of regularization…). Its Covid mortality rate is, to date, 485 deaths per million inhabitants (excluding deaths at home), for a world average of 127.4 . In terms of the number of deaths, France is in third place in Europe behind the United Kingdom and Italy and ahead of Spain, which could, however, surpass it in the next two weeks.
15.6% of French people tested
For Covid “lethality” (No. of deaths / No. of confirmed cases), France is gradually improving its “score” with a rate of 6.2%, thanks to test campaigns that detect many healthy carriers. (NB: worldwide Covid lethality: 3%, and European lethality: 4.6%).
It is true that, apart from a few local exceptions (Marseille and Garches in particular), in the acute phase of the epidemic, France tested too little for too long, treated too many patients too late and relied too much on Doliprane and “spontaneous cure” to be able to hope to save as many lives as possible.
15.6% of French people have been tested, the majority of them during deconfinement. The Italians tested 18% of their population, the Canadians 18.3%, the Germans 18.6%, the Portuguese 24.1%, the Russians 30.4%, the Americans 30.8%, the Danes 62.2% by applying the tests at the beginning of the epidemic. Thanks to the belated effort made over the last 6 weeks, France has risen from the depths to 49th place in the world for the number of tests per million inhabitants. At the frenetic pace at which it is testing today, France could gain five to ten places for this indicator before the end of October. The progress in testing is considerable, but the scale of the effort over a very short period of time may be counterproductive because it causes anxiety for the population while the number of weekly deaths is still low (15 times lower than it was at the epidemic peak in the first week of April). There is not yet any reason to sound the alarm and paralyze all or part of the country, which is already the world champion in terms of the duration of confinement (55 days). According to INSEE, there has been no significant excess mortality in France since May 1 and up to now, compared to a normal year.
France is now the European country that reports the most active cases (more than 386,000). This number is increasing (+ 84,338 in one week). It has largely overtaken Russia, which is now moving serenely towards the end of the epidemic with 182,000 active cases). But the vast majority of cases are benign and do not all require hospitalization.
peace of mind in Spain
France is still lagging behind in terms of recoveries (18.5% of confirmed cases). It does less well than Senegal, which has cured 80.2% of its patients, Morocco, which has cured 81.7%, and Russia, which has cured 82.2% (note that these 3 countries, along with more than 50 other countries, have used treatment protocols inspired by that of the IHU in Marseille). France has healed less than Italy, which has healed 72.7% of its confirmed cases, Austria 77.8%, Switzerland 82.1%, Iran 84.1%, Germany, which has already sent 88% of its patients home, Turkey, which has healed 87.7%, etc.). The global cure rate for confirmed cases is now 73.8%, even though a majority of countries entered the epidemic well after France, the European rate is 51.8%: it should be much better at this stage of the epidemic. France is therefore, along with Belgium, the country that pulls this European indicator down the most.
The situation in Spain is deteriorating “à la française”, but much worse. It reports 75,900 new cases, 737 deaths and 120 additional critical cases in one week. These last two indicators are worrying. Spain is, after Russia, the country with the most critical cases in Europe (1,465). These critical cases carry the seeds of an inevitable increase in the number of deaths in the coming weeks.
The situation in Germany is deteriorating very slightly: The number of active cases increases by 5,896 in one week. The number of critical cases increases by only 54 in one week. The number of weekly deaths remains very low (66). Germany has 15.6 times fewer patients under treatment and 3.6 times fewer critical cases than France.
Belgium and Russia
With a mortality rate of 859 deaths per million inhabitants, Belgium will remain the European leader in this indicator (excluding microstates). It is now in 2nd position worldwide behind Peru. The number of new cases is still high for a country of 11 million inhabitants (+ 10,792 in one week). The number of patients under treatment continues to increase (79,680 today, i.e. 10,494 more in one week). It is also high in relation to the population. The number of critical cases is on the rise (+30). The Belgian cure rate is the lowest in the world (only 17.6% of reported cases to date). Belgium therefore remains, behind Spain and France, the most active focus of the epidemic in Western Europe. It should be noted that Belgians report Covid deaths at home, which some of its neighbors do not.
In Russia, 30.4% of the inhabitants have been tested, which represents the 3rd screening rate for countries with more than 10 million inhabitants, hence a still high number of new cases declared (7,212 cases yesterday). With 181,846 patients under treatment, Russia is in 5th position behind the USA, India, Brazil and France. This number has increased slightly over the last two weeks.
The number of daily deaths is decreasing. The Russian mortality rate per million inhabitants has reached 137. It is still nearly 4 times lower than in France (485).
Because it detects quickly, isolates and treats without delay, and because it applies a strategy and protocol inspired by those of the Marseille IHU, Russia has already cured 82.2% of its confirmed cases, i.e. more than 934,000 patients. However, Russia entered the epidemic round one month after France, which only cured 18.5% of its confirmed cases, or 94,891 patients (almost ten times less).
Russia has thus managed the Covid-19 crisis rather well so far. It has just started mass production of a vaccine after having passed the stages of its validation at the national level. Some 20 countries including Brazil, Mexico and India have already acquired it for a total of 2 billion doses. The Russians have started vaccinations, on a voluntary basis by the Moscow population. The Russian Minister of Defense was one of the first to be vaccinated.
The epidemic there is rapidly receding. This continent is still largely spared. Out of 42 million inhabitants, it has so far declared 30,887 cases of which 28,074 have already been cured. There are still 1,905 “active” cases (rapidly declining), of which only 19 are in serious or critical condition (rapidly declining). The continent of Oceania reported 36 deaths this week. Its Covid mortality rate is 21.6 per million inhabitants (France: 485).
The Covid mortality rates per million inhabitants of the 34 countries that exceeded 2,400 deaths give an idea of the most affected geographical areas and/or countries.
A table below presents the balance sheets of the 34 countries that reported more than 2,400 deaths (94% of the losses).
Table of data concerning Europe (and the EU) in the face of the epidemic
Reminder: worldwide Covid mortality rate: 127.4 deaths / Millions of h (and European 294 deaths/M of h)