General (2s) Dominique Delawarde, a former intelligence officer specializing in international issues and particularly in the United States, delivers every fortnight a precise analysis of the evolution of the Covid-19 epidemic at the national and international level.
The epidemic is taking its course. At the global level, it is now marking time, if we look at the numbers of deaths reported by all the states concerned. From 50,000 deaths/week in early April, the number of deaths has fallen to 36,616 deaths/week today. It is now on a very slight general downward slope. The decline will be long and is expected to continue through all or part of 2021 and possibly beyond.
At this point in time, statistical and observational analyses reveal some facts and raise some questions.
1 – The populations of Latin origin and/or culture (Latin America and Southern Europe (Italy, France, Spain, Portugal) have been the most affected: they represent only 10 to 12% of the world’s population but have had the highest mortality rates and have accumulated more than 450,000 deaths (nearly 45% of the world’s losses).
Question: Were there problems in these countries in terms of organization, management of the epidemic and/or health service inadequacies and/or population behavioral problems that could explain these poor results?
2 – The populations that consume the most drugs, are the most vaccinated, the most aseptic and the most medically “assisted” in the world (Western EU and USA) and that have the highest financial means and the most efficient health systems have clearly been “much more” affected than those in less developed countries. More than 40% of deaths for less than 8% of the world’s population.
Questions: Has this overabundance of medical “assistance” from birth in these countries not ultimately reduced the capacity of human organisms to defend themselves against disease? Isn’t there a possible explanation for the better “resistance” of developing countries (in Africa and Asia) whose state of health is less “assisted” than ours?
Isn’t there also food for thought about our lifestyles and eating habits which do not favour the maintenance of good health in our “over-(and under)nourished” western populations (diabetes, overweight, obesity, cardiovascular weaknesses: co-morbidity factors noted in Covid-19 victims)?
3 – The average age of the deceased is very close to that of the life expectancy observed in the different countries. If the oldest, and therefore the most fragile, were the most affected, certain countries with very large populations of senior citizens were relatively spared (Japan, Taiwan, South Korea for example). Mortality rates in these countries were 30 to 150 times lower than in the West.
Question: Is this a consequence of the quality of the management of the epidemic and the care of patients, of more virtuous lifestyles and consumption patterns, or is it simply the effect of chance?
4 – According to some “experts”, areas of higher population density would have favored a more rapid progression of the epidemic. What seems to be true in some Western countries has not been true in the East (Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, Indonesia, China, etc.) and sometimes even in some other Western countries that are very densely populated (Germany, Austria, Luxembourg).
Question: Didn’t these differentiated results result from the “quality of management” of the epidemic? Or is it that fate has been more severe in some countries and much less so in others?
5 – Countries in which the populations have trusted their governments and in which the governments have been able to deserve this trust, to treat their population as adults, not to lie in order to hide their unpreparedness and their inadequacies, to decentralize the management of the epidemic, to trust health care personnel and to leave them free to prescribe, have obtained good results. This has been observed in Northern Europe (Scandinavian and Baltic countries), Eastern Europe (Visegrad Group), South-Eastern Europe (Greece, Slovenia, Croatia) and in German-speaking Europe (Germany, Austria).
On the other hand, when these conditions were not met, certain governments lacking confidence and credibility, acting under the influence of pharmaceutical lobbies and wanting to direct everything from the top of the state, in the Soviet style, obtained disastrous results. They devastated their economies for a long time without really convincing results on the lethality of the epidemic.
Question: To what type of governance should we link France’s management of the epidemic in 2020?
6 – Regarding the treatments used to help patients overcome the disease themselves without overwhelming hospitals for long weeks, the protocol proposed by the IHU of Marseille has been massively adopted in many countries shown in green on the map below, representing 4.3 billion inhabitants.
It must be recognized that, in these countries, the lethality of the epidemic was much less than in the countries that only partially used the Marseille protocol or that administered it too hard and too late (in red on the map).
The above finding was confirmed in an international survey conducted by a US institute of 6,277 practitioners in 30 countries who had treated Covid patients and ranked Hydroxychloroquine as the most effective treatment for Covid-19. This Anglo-Saxon study has been reproduced on the following site:
The original English version was published by the Washington Time.
Question: How many lives would have been saved if our French doctors had had the freedom to prescribe as they do in every other country in the world?
An article signed by 270 professors, scientists and researchers was to appear in the Journal du Dimanche on September 27th. It criticized, and argued, the over-reaction of the executive to the pandemic. It was replaced by a tribune signed by 7 (seven) professors advocating drastic measures to be taken immediately.
See the first 3 minutes of the video
The short video below shows an interesting deciphering of the statistics of the epidemic in France. Conclusion? An alarmist and anxiety-provoking media communication that is unfounded to this day.
Finally, I propose to end with a short video which shows us the reaction to Covid of a lambda citizen living in the deep countryside.
Situation report for Saturday, October 10, 2020 0h00 GMT
Since the beginning of the epidemic
214 countries or territories were affected by the virus, for 37,092,253 reported cases (+ 2,272,725 in 1 week).
1,072,146 deaths (+ 36,616 + 2789 regularization Mexico); 27,879,779 recoveries (+ 1,992,797 in 1 week).
8,140,328 patients undergoing treatment (+283,759 in one week), including 68,434 in critical condition (+2,200 in one week).
– 34 countries have reported more than 3,000 deaths since the beginning of the epidemic: in order of loss:
(USA, Brazil, India, Mexico, United Kingdom, Italy, Peru, Spain, France, Iran, Colombia, Argentina, Russia, South Africa, Chile, Ecuador, Indonesia, Belgium, Iraq, Germany, Canada, Turkey, Bolivia, Netherlands, Pakistan, Philippines, Egypt, Sweden, Bangladesh, Romania, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine, China, Guatemala.
Of the 1,072,146 deaths in the epidemic worldwide, 1,007,829 (94%) occurred in these 34 countries.
On a global scale, the pandemic is marking time. The number of deaths (36,616 in one week is stable but abounded by a regularization of Mexico of 2,789 deaths). Critical cases (68,434) are on the rise (+ 2,200 in 1 week). With 2.27 million new cases/week reported, the rate of contamination is increasing.
The evolution of reported losses over the past few weeks can be summarized in a table:
On reading it, one realizes to what extent mortality remains very low, declining in Oceania and stabilizing in Africa, to what extent it also declines in the United States, Western Asia and Latin America and deteriorates very slightly in Europe. India is becoming the country with the highest losses in the world, but Latin America still remains the epicenter of the epidemic.
The circulation of the virus continues to increase in Europe, but it is much less lethal: (nearly 690,000 new cases in one week), more than 3.2 million patients undergoing treatment (including countries that no longer report them: UK, Spain, Sweden and the Netherlands); 10,229 critical cases (+1,173 in 1 week) for 5,503 deaths (+852 in 1 week).
The lethality of the virus is slowly decreasing in West Asia (India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran). It is marking time in Africa (South Africa, Egypt). The milestones of 37 million cases and 1.07 million deaths have been passed as planned. At the current rate of evolution of the epidemic, the milestones of 46 million cases and 1.2 million deaths will be crossed in 4 weeks (November 7) just after the U.S. election.
Over the past week, India has reported more deaths than the US and Brazil. Latin America, however, still remains the epicenter of the epidemic, with more than 2.5 times the losses in Northern America (USA+Canada). Of the 36,616 deaths in the past week, 12,702 are Latin American, 11,712 are West Asian, 5,503 are European and 5,294 are US or Canadian. The situation appears to be improving in West Asia. Countries in the region now account for only 25% of new cases worldwide (85,000 new cases/day).
Current status of the number of cases and deaths by major region of the world
Yesterday’s heaviest balance sheets were those of India, the USA, Brazil and Argentina. These four countries alone reported yesterday: 49.9% of new cases, 52.4% of new deaths and 52.7% of critical cases in the world.
Oceania, Africa and Asia still have very low mortality rates and a 23% share of global losses, even though they account for 77% of the population. Europe and the American continent (North and South) record 77% of the losses for less than 23% of the world’s population. The shares of Europe, North America and Africa are gradually declining. The shares of Latin America and (Western) Asia are increasing.
To put the human toll of the 2020 pandemic into perspective, it should be remembered that since the beginning of 2020, in nine months and ten days, there have already been 108.5 million births, 33 million abortions and 45.6 million deaths in the world, of which:
– 12.5 million deaths related to cardiovascular diseases.
– 8.5 million deaths related to malnutrition.
– 6.4 million deaths related to cancer,
– 3.86 million smoking-related deaths,
– 2.56 million lower respiratory infections
– 1.95 million alcohol-related deaths,
6 – 1.3 million AIDS deaths,
– 1.3 million deaths from diabetes
– 1.2 million deaths from tuberculosis
– 1.07 million deaths “with” Covid-19
– 1.05 million traffic accident deaths,
– 83,000 suicides
– 760,000 malaria deaths
These data are estimates taken from WHO annual statistics and related to the period under consideration (9 months 10 days). To this could be added deaths related to other infectious diseases (excluding Covid), which can be counted in the millions, and direct and indirect deaths related to military interference or economic sanctions by Western countries in the Near and Middle East or Latin America.
Again to put things into perspective, here is a comparison with the other major global epidemics of the last century
Finally, France records, on average, 11,750 deaths per week, all causes combined. Last week, 428 people, most of them very old, died “with” the Covid-19, which represents less than 4% of the weekly deaths.
With regard to Covid deaths, it should be remembered that the numbers reported are very uncertain. The examples of the United Kingdom, which subtracted 5,303 deaths from its total on August 12, or Spain, which did the same last June, Colombia, Bolivia, Argentina and Mexico, which have been adding a few thousand deaths to their death toll since the beginning of September, are there to prove it. Some developing countries do not have the means to collect reliable information. Others underestimate the number of deaths by forgetting, for example, voluntarily or not, to count deaths at home, others strongly overestimate this number by attributing to Covid alone, the deaths of very many patients suffering from multiple pathologies (including “old age”). Several of these pathologies, other than Covid, were often the primary cause of death.
Situation by continent, sub-continent, and countries most affected
1 – North America :
The USA only reports 17% of the new Covid cases on the planet. They also reported 20.4% of the total losses of the epidemic (China 0.43%). The number of deaths per week is down to 5,118. The number of patients being treated is approaching 2.616 million and continues to increase (+57,000 in 1 week). The number of critical cases rose very slightly to nearly 14,667. The epidemic is declining in the United States, which will nevertheless remain the world leader in terms of deaths. The number of deaths is expected to reach 270,000 by the end of 2020. (58 times the reported losses in China….)
In Canada, the epidemic has regained momentum with 176 deaths for the entire past week (significant increase). Its mortality rate since the beginning of the epidemic remains 2.5 times lower than that of the USA. The number of reported critical cases is 154 (up significantly), but these numbers remain derisory.
2 – Latin America :
With nearly 366,000 reported deaths, Latin America is by far the part of the world most affected by the epidemic in terms of the total number of deaths and the second highest mortality rate per million hours.
The situation in Brazil is beginning to improve. The number of new cases is declining (3rd in the world behind India, and the USA with less than 8% of new cases worldwide) and the number of critical cases (3rd behind the USA and India at 8,318) remains high. The number of daily deaths has fallen behind that of India and the USA. Brazil has passed the epidemic peak since the end of July. Deaths below 700/day should now be the norm in the coming days.
In Mexico, the number of deaths was 2,229 in one week. It is declining, but a regularization of 2,789 deaths has raised its weekly death toll to 5,018. It is no longer in the top quartet (replaced by Argentina).
In Latin America, human losses are concentrated in 11 states that report more than 98% of “Latino” deaths and more than 2,200 deaths each. Other countries in the Caribbean and South America are still relatively untouched by the epidemic.
3 – Asia :
East and Southeast Asia (China, Japan, Vietnam, both Koreas, Taiwan, Philippines, Indonesia, Laos, Cambodia, Malaysia, Burma …) is relatively unaffected by the pandemic. China continues to do well. With 97 new cases declared in 1 week, 206 patients still under treatment including 2 serious cases, and 0 new deaths, China has almost eradicated the epidemic on its soil.
Since the beginning of the epidemic, Indonesia, the most affected country in East Asia, has recorded a derisory mortality rate of 43 deaths per million inhabitants. Taiwan, the least affected, reports a mortality rate of 0.3 per million inhabitants (7 Covid deaths per 24 million h). Japan, for its part, declares 1,616 deaths for 126 million h, or 13 deaths per million inhabitants.
It is therefore West Asia (India, Iran and neighboring countries in the Middle East) that records the bulk of the losses in Asia. It should be noted that Iran is still a country under “maximum” economic sanctions by the USA (to the benefit of Israel) and has the highest mortality rate in Asia at 333 deaths/million inhabitants. However, this rate remains much lower than the rates of the American continents and Western Europe.
Table showing the situation and losses of the ten Asian countries that have exceeded 1,860 deaths.
4 – Africa :
Mortality linked to Covid is derisory. With the exception of South Africa, chloroquine has been massively used there to treat patients. Only South Africa is in a worrying situation with a number of new cases and deaths which alone represent half of those on the continent. Together with Egypt, Morocco, Algeria, Ethiopia and Nigeria, the only other African countries to exceed 900 deaths in 9 months, it accounts for nearly 80% of reported African deaths.
5 – Europe.
A progressive deterioration of the epidemic situation, still on a small scale, can be observed there. 4,113 of the 5,503 European deaths reported this week are in a handful of countries, with, in order: Russia (1,180), Spain (843), Ukraine (518), France (428), United Kingdom (411), Romania (384), Poland (349). For the other 41 European countries or territories, the increase in the number of deaths is much less significant. These numbers all remain derisory compared to those at the epidemic peak last April.
The situation in the United Kingdom “seems” to be deteriorating. Thus, the number of critical cases “would be” up sharply to 436 (but more than 3 times lower than in France). The level of weekly losses has risen to 411 reported deaths, which remains derisory. Total losses are and will remain, by far, the highest in Europe and should exceed 45,000 deaths at the end of the epidemic (ten times the figure for China).
The situation in Italy has deteriorated very slightly: an increase in critical cases to 387 (+93 in one week), which remains derisory. The number of new cases (+23,862 in one week) remains low compared to that of France (+102,324) and the number of patients under treatment is increasing (+16,110 in one week). The number of deaths remains very low (170 in one week). Italy seems to have the current situation under control.
In France: second wave?
The situation in France is slowly deteriorating. Its weekly number of new cases explodes (+ 102,324). But the number of new cases is not a determining factor in characterizing the lethality of an epidemic. Detecting tens of thousands of healthy carriers, or even false positives, is of interest only to define the perimeter of the epidemic, and thus avoid, through targeted measures, a too important spread. The two most relevant indicators are the number of critical cases, which is on the rise (+172 in one week) and the number of deaths: 428 over the week (+16 compared to last week).
The analysis of the two following curves shows that we had few cases and many deaths in the first week of April (epidemic peak) and that we now have three times more cases and twelve times fewer deaths. So there is indeed a second wave of “cases” much higher than the first (because we are finally testing a lot). But there is still no discernible second wave of deaths.
The Covid mortality rate is, to date, 499 deaths per million inhabitants (excluding deaths at home), for a world average of 137.5 . In terms of the number of deaths, France is in fourth place in Europe (out of 48 countries or territories) behind the United Kingdom, Italy and Spain.
For those, journalists and citizens, who still think that we are now experiencing a second wave of the epidemic, here is the curve of daily (gray bar) and weekly (orange) deaths since the first day of the epidemic. It takes a sharp eye to detect a second wave. It is at most a “lapping” that does not justify putting the country under a bell and continuing the break-up of its economy.
For Covid “lethality” (No. of deaths / No. of confirmed cases), France is gradually improving its “score” with a rate of 4.7%, thanks to test campaigns that detect many healthy carriers. (For the record: worldwide Covid lethality: 2.9%, and European lethality: 3.9%).
In the acute phase of the epidemic, in April, apart from a few local exceptions (Marseille and Garches in particular), France tested too little for too long, treated too many patients too late, and relied too much on Doliprane and “spontaneous healing” to be able to hope to save a maximum number of lives.
11 18.5% of French people have been tested, the majority of them since the deconfinement. The Italians have tested 20.4% of their population, the Germans 21.6%, the Canadians 22.3%, the Portuguese 28%, the Russians 34%, the Americans 35%, the Danes 73.7% by applying the tests from the beginning of the epidemic. Thanks to the belated effort made over the last 8 weeks, France has climbed to 48th place in the world for the number of tests per million inhabitants. The progress in terms of testing is considerable, but the scale of the effort over a very short period of time may be counterproductive because it is anxious for the population while the number of weekly deaths is still low (12 times lower than it was during the epidemic peak in the first week of April). There is therefore still no reason to sound the alarm and paralyze all or part of the country, which is already the world champion in terms of the duration of confinement (55 days). According to INSEE (see curve below) there has been no significant excess mortality in France since 1 May and until 21 September (last known figure), compared to a normal year.
France is now the European country that reports the most active cases (over 558,000). This number is on the rise (+ 102,000 in one week). It has largely overtaken Russia, which has only 240,000 active cases). However, the vast majority of cases are benign and do not all require hospitalization.
France is still lagging behind in terms of reported cures (14.6% of confirmed cases). It does less well than Russia, which has cured 80%, Morocco, which has cured 84%, and Senegal, which has cured 86.3% (note that these 3 countries have used, with more than fifty other countries, treatment protocols inspired by that of the IHU of Marseille).
France has healed less than Italy, which has healed 69.1% of its confirmed cases, Austria 79%, Switzerland 80.2%, Iran 81.5%, Germany, which has already sent 84.8% of its patients home, Turkey, which has healed 87.8%, etc.). The global cure rate for confirmed cases is now 75.2%, even though a majority of countries entered the epidemic well after France. The European rate is 51.2%, it should be much better at this stage of the epidemic. France is therefore, along with Belgium, the country that pulls this European indicator down the most.
Critical situation in Spain
The situation in Spain continues to deteriorate. It reports 80,000 new cases, 854 deaths and 24 additional critical cases in one week. These last two indicators are worrying. After Russia, Spain is the country with the most critical cases in Europe (1,590). These critical cases carry the seeds of an inevitable increase in the number of deaths in the coming weeks.
The situation in Germany is deteriorating very slightly: The number of active cases increases by 9,724 in one week. The number of critical cases increases by 137 in one week. The number of weekly deaths remains very low (91). Germany has 14 times fewer patients under treatment and 3 times fewer critical cases than France.
With a mortality rate of 873 deaths per million inhabitants, Belgium will remain the European leader in this indicator (excluding microstates). It is still in 2nd position worldwide, behind Peru. The number of new cases is still high for a country of 11 million inhabitants (+22,537 in one week). The number of patients under treatment continues to increase (113,489 today, i.e. 22,000 more in one week). It is also high in relation to the population. The number of critical cases is on the rise (+ 67 in one week). The Belgian cure rate is the lowest in the world (only 13.9% of reported cases to date). Belgium therefore remains, behind Spain and France, the most active focus of the epidemic in Western Europe. It should be noted that Belgians report Covid deaths at home, which some of its neighbors do not.
Russia isolates quickly
In Russia, a slight resurgence of the epidemic can be observed: 34% of the inhabitants have been tested, which represents the 3rd highest rate of screening for countries with more than 10 million inhabitants, hence a still high number of new cases reported (12,126 cases yesterday). With 240,500 patients under treatment, Russia is in 5th position behind the USA, India, France and Brazil. This number has been increasing over the last two weeks.
The number of daily deaths is slightly increasing. Russia’s mortality rate per million inhabitants has reached 152, which is still more than three times lower than in France (499).
Because it detects quickly, isolates and treats without delay, and because it applies a strategy and protocol inspired by those of the Marseille IHU, Russia has already cured nearly 80% of its confirmed cases, or more than one million patients. However, Russia entered the epidemic round one month after France, which has cured only 14.6% of its confirmed cases, or 100,000 patients (almost ten times less).
Russia has therefore managed the Covid-19 crisis rather well so far. Some 20 countries including Brazil, Mexico and India have already purchased the Russian vaccine for a total of 2 billion doses.
6 – Oceania:
The epidemic is rapidly spreading in Oceania. This continent is still largely spared. Out of 42 million inhabitants, it has reported 32,121 cases to date, 29,200 of which have already been cured. There are still 1,982 “active” cases (rapidly declining), of which only 13 are in a serious or critical state (rapidly declining). The continent of Oceania reported 32 deaths this week. Its Covid mortality rate is 21.5 deaths per million inhabitants (France: 500).
The Covid mortality rates per million inhabitants of the 34 countries with over 2,900 deaths give an idea of the most affected geographical areas and/or countries.
Table of data concerning Europe (and the EU) in the face of the epidemic
Reminder: worldwide Covid mortality rate: 137.5 deaths / Millions of hours (and European 307 deaths/M