In the aftermath of American strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, how should we understand this war? We asked for the opinion of Leslie Varenne, director of the Institute for International and Strategic Monitoring and Studies (IVERIS).
Donald Trump has Iranian nuclear installations bombed but declares that the United States is not at war with Iran. Israel has been pounding military sites in Iran for eleven days, but the Hebrew State denies any aggression. How should we understand this strange war?
This is not a strange war, it’s a war, with the difference that it disregards international law and all rules including the Geneva Conventions that prohibit striking targets likely to cause disasters. It is true that since October 2023 and the Israeli military intervention in Gaza with the massacres of civilian populations, strikes on hospitals, famine used as a weapon of war, all red lines have already been crossed. That being said, if Donald Trump specifies that the United States is not at war, it’s for domestic considerations. The American constitution does not allow the president to declare a conflict without Congressional approval. The strikes of June 21 on the three Iranian nuclear sites: Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, were therefore perfectly unconstitutional and illegal. As for the Hebrew State, it possesses nuclear weapons without having signed the non-proliferation treaty, unlike Iran, which moreover is not a nuclear-armed state. It’s a world without faith or law. I’ve been hearing for a few days certain “experts” explain that certainly all this is illegal but it’s not illegitimate for all that. This is absurd reasoning. Legality is the law, legitimacy is a notion with variable geometry, which can be twisted according to one’s opinions, one’s interests, but which can in no way govern international relations.
After last Sunday’s American strikes, Iran warns that the American strikes “will have eternal consequences.” But does it have the means to retaliate?
I’ve read many comments on this term “eternal,” but it must be understood as a formula in the narrative of a country that belongs to a multi-millennial civilization and therefore has a sense of the long term. The Iranian authorities are not helpless, they have a stock of missiles and drones whose true number no one knows. They also have proxies in the region: Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, the Hashd al-Shaabi in Iraq, who remain silent for the moment but have not disappeared for all that. They can also block the Strait of Hormuz. However, they must face an extremely complex situation that consists of reacting enough not to appear weak but not too much so as not to aggravate a conflict that no one would control anymore, which no one wants, including those considered allies of Tehran.
That being said, the situation is also very delicate for Donald Trump. It is difficult for him to launch into a major war in the Middle East after having campaigned by tirelessly denouncing the warlike adventures of his predecessors. His voters are already making themselves loudly heard. For now the criticism remains on social media, but nonetheless, it is violent. In addition, the United States is no longer capable of opening several fronts at once, the war in Ukraine is not over, not to mention that their main adversary remains China… Finally, only Benjamin Netanyahu acts like a free electron.
Russia, China, among others, are not rushing to help Tehran. Iran seems to be isolated on the international stage. Is this really the case?
That’s the impression it gives. While it is true that Russia and China have firmly condemned the Israeli-American aggressions on Iran, notably in the Security Council, these condemnations have remained very conventional speeches. However, what do we know about what’s happening behind the scenes? China, Russia, Iran are partners within BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The cooperation between these three states is numerous. In May, a 1,350 km railway line connecting China and Iran was inaugurated. This achievement marks a key stage in Sino-Iranian relations – which incidentally would be very useful in case Tehran decided to block the Strait of Hormuz, oil deliveries to Beijing could continue by another route.
None of these countries has an interest in seeing Iran sink into war and chaos. I tend to think that for now, the strategy chosen by all consists of not adding fuel to the fire with hasty declarations. However, this does not mean that Tehran is isolated.
Finally, there will be no conflagration between the Global South and the West. Is the specter of the third world war receding?
Never since the Second World War had the world danced so much on a volcano, with Western leaders either whimsical and unpredictable like Donald Trump, or inaudible and lost like the Europeans. Benjamin Netanyahu has launched into a headlong rush and is dragging them all in his wake. How far can this go? No one can predict what comes next…