The dissolution of the National Assembly is part of a carefully thought-out strategy by President Macron: to confront Marine Le Pen with the difficulties and unpopularity of power to prevent her from becoming president in 2027.
Emmanuel Maron’s decision to dissolve the National Assembly was not a hasty one. For weeks, all the polls had been predicting a landslide victory for the Rassemblement National. The figures released by the polls on June 9 confirmed the massive rejection of the policies of the President of the Republic and his government.
Jordan Bardella ended up with 31.36% of the vote, well ahead of Valérie Hayer’s Renaissance party (14.60%) and Raphaël Glucksmann’s PS-Place-Publique (13.83%). Also far ahead of LFI (9.89%), Les Républicains (7.24%), les Écologistes (5.5%) and Reconquête (5.47%). The message is loud and clear.
Legislative elections on June 30 and July 7, 2024
Such a disavowal of the presidential party is fraught with consequences. The French people have expressed their desire for a radical change of policy, particularly in terms of immigration, security, health, justice and purchasing power…. These are all issues on which all traditional parties have failed for decades. Only Marine Le Pen’s party, which has never been in power, seems likely to offer concrete solutions.
On June 30 and July 7, the French will be going back to the polls. It’s a safe bet that voters will confirm their choice of June 9 and send a majority of RN deputies to the Assembly. The President of the Republic will then have no choice but to appoint a Prime Minister from the ranks of the new majority. France would then experience a new cohabitation, identical to that of 1997-2002, with a predictable outcome. However, Macron’s strategy is part of a three-year process, with the 2027 presidential election as the target.
The bed of the far right
It’s true that Emmanuel Macron cannot stand for re-election after his second term. However, he doesn’t want to be the man whose disastrous policies have provided a breeding ground for the far-right and enabled Marine Le Pen to rise to supreme office. Hence his decision to dissolve the government. And to leave the running of the country, for three years, to the Rassemblement National.
Three years is long enough to be confronted with the difficulties of exercising power and its inevitable unpopularity. For the new Head of Government will no longer be able to be satisfied with “y’a qu’a, faut qu’on”, so convenient in opposition. He will have to tackle all those problems that make life so difficult for the French.
From July 1ᵉʳ, gas prices will rise by 11.7%, the Olympic Games will run from July 26 to August 11, and the Paralympics from August 28 to September 8. They will offer a great party, but will make life unbearable for Parisians in particular. If anything goes wrong, who will be held responsible? Who will be responsible for three years of insecurity, inflation and immigration, which we can’t imagine will be resolved by 2027? Will the RN be able to work miracles?
Emmanuel Macron had all this in mind when he took the decision to dissolve the National Assembly on June 9, 2024. He wanted to block Marine Le Pen’s path to the Élysée.
Will he succeed?