Viewpoint. Day after day, the pieces of the puzzle come together… and draw the risks of a recomposed Europe.
By Bernard Aubin
Until a few days ago, few observers were considering military action in Ukraine. Russia would have placed 150,000 men at the border to play marbles! Then, the same people were convinced that if an offensive took place, it would be limited to the pro-Russian territories located on the outskirts of Donbass.
Today, the man who had already annexed Crimea declares himself ready to wage an all-out war to inflict an identical fate on Ukraine. And everything leads us to believe that Putin has not modernized the Russian arsenal since 2000, and equipped his army with ultramodern tools of mass destruction, only to protect himself from possible American attacks. Nuclear deterrence now has another aspect.
Not to be taken lightly
This man is extremely predictable. He enjoys being predictable, we have written several times. And there is no one so blind as the one who does not want to see. Georgia and Moldova, former Soviet republics, are clearly in his sights. For its part, Poland is trembling at the sight of the approaching bear.
The Russian Foreign Ministry recently warned that Finnish or Swedish membership in NATO “would have serious military and political repercussions. This is an expression that should not be taken lightly when one remembers that the same argument was used as a pretext for the invasion of Ukraine.
The Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania), under Soviet domination until 1991, are members of NATO, which protects them somewhat. Looking at a map, one can only imagine the asphyxiation that Putin’s dream of a greater Russia would cause in Europe. What would be left in the end? And France in particular ?
Provocation in all directions
According to the editor-in-chief of Philosophy Magazine, author of an essay entitled “in the head of Vladimir Putin”, “France is a stupid country” according to Russia, which condemns all “laxity, the impoverishment of patriotic sentiment, historical amnesia, the reign of political correctness, intercultural tensions, Islamist terrorism and the absence of great perspectives”.
All the more reason for the master of the Kremlin, a great defender of human rights before the Eternal and himself a model of virtue, to allow himself to continue his conquest of the West? Not immediately, in any case. He is wary of NATO, for the moment. But he continues to provoke in all directions in order to measure his opportunities.
Putin knows that he is now supported by China, his new ally. Another “Republic” which has just officially increased its military budget by 7.1%. Probably much more in reality. Tomorrow, will our children speak Russian or Mandarin, under the benevolent gaze of the Americans ?