The peak of the 3rd wave is expected on April 18, 2021, according to mathematical projections by the University of Washington’s IHME, when there could be more than 600 deaths per day in saturated hospitals.
While a new Defense Council will meet this Wednesday, March 31, new restrictive measures to curb the epidemic should be decided in the wake by the President of the Republic. Because the health situation is inexorably worsening in our country.
The coronavirus epidemic has caused 95,364 deaths in France as of March 30, 2021 (+337 in 24 hours) including 8,829 in the Grand Est region (+27 in 24 hours). With 5,072 patients in intensive care (as of March 30, 2021), 28,510 hospitalized patients (+188), an occupancy rate of intensive care units close to saturation, particularly in the Ile-de-France region, all Covid monitoring indicators are deteriorating. In order to understand the situation, it is important to know that one year ago, on March 29, 2020, the occupancy rate of intensive care units was lower than today (91% versus 98%).
The recent restrictive measures decided by the government week after week have remained without effect. Hence the mobilization of emergency physicians who fear that they will soon have to sort out their patients. They refuse to practice disaster medicine.
600 deaths per day!
What are the projections for this third wave, which has already surpassed the peak of the second (4,903 patients in ICU on November 16, 2020)? To find out, you have to consult The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington.
And its projections are not very optimistic. Indeed, the IHME considers that the daily number of deaths is the best indicator of the progression of the pandemic, even if there is a 17 to 21 day lag between infection and death. According to these mathematical projections, the peak of this third wave will be reached on April 18, 2021 with, in the worst case scenario, 633 deaths per day in France. The figures would be slightly better in the hypothesis of strictly applied barrier measures, such as the mask imposed on everyone and everywhere.
After which, curiously, this same curve collapses abruptly, returning to a more or less normal situation (a few deaths per day) at the end of June 2021.
Under these conditions, it is easy to understand the anxiety of doctors and caregivers who know that the next two or three weeks will be particularly difficult for them and for their patients. And that it will be difficult to reverse the curves, whatever the decisions taken this Wednesday at the end of the Defense Council.