Presidential election: the joys of politics

Xavier Bertrand and Valérie Pécresse return to the LR house, tug-of-war in the PS, Zemmour sows discord in the camp of the sovereignist right. The campaign promises to be fresh and joyful.

Like two immature teenagers, they ran away in 2017 for one, in 2019 for the other, to try a personal political adventure. After this solitary escapade, Valérie Pécresse and Xavier Bertrand have decided, sheepishly, to return to the Les Républicains family to participate, on December 4, in the congress that must invest the candidate for the presidential election of 10 and 24 April 2022.
Why this about-face by the two regional presidents? Because without the strength of the Gaullist party, without the support of its militants and, above all, without the party’s financial manna, their ambitious presidential project would be doomed to failure. But by returning to the LR fold, they also know that one of them will be eliminated from the competition on the evening of December 4, 2021. Or perhaps both. Because other candidates for the candidacy have declared themselves. And the former Prime Minister, Edouard Philippe, remains in ambush with his new party Horizons.

Tears in the PS

It’s not much better in the Socialist Party where Stéphane le Foll, former Minister of Agriculture under François Hollande, had to bow to Anne Hidalgo who was nominated by 72% of the militants to carry the Socialist colors in the presidential elections. Stéphane Le Foll immediately made it known that he would not support the mayor of Paris. I do not agree with the doubling of teachers’ salaries,” he said. I didn’t understand the VAT cut on energy prices. I’m surprised that the left is going back to the 32-hour work week when it’s not a demand of those we should be talking to.”
The result of this incessant bickering: the socialist candidate is credited with 5 to 7% in the polls.

Zemmour still not a candidate

We see him everywhere, we only talk about him. Eric Zemmour is the buzz on TV, radio, social networks. It must be recognized that the polemicist of CNews, positioned in the camp of the sovereignist right, is moving the lines, especially on immigration and security. Therefore, he is overshadowing Marine Le Pen. But thanks to him, this campaign is finally tackling themes that were previously abandoned to the far right. And it works. The polls show the steady progression of Zemmour, from 5% at the beginning of September to 17 or 18% in mid-October. And yet, Eric Zemmour is still not a declared presidential candidate. The polemicist should make the announcement in mid-November 2021.

Macron in the lead

The opinion polls follow each other and are very similar. An Odoxa poll for L’Obs confirms that Emmanuel Macron would get 25% of the voting intentions in the first round, followed by Marine Le Pen at 18%, Eric Zemmour at 16% (we are within the margin of error), Xavier Bertrand at 13% (but only 8.5% for Valérie Pécresse). Jean-Luc Mélenchon would get 8.5% of the votes, followed by Yannick Jadot for EELV at 6.5%. As for Anne Hidalgo, she would get only 4.5% of the votes and Arnaud Montebourg at 2 or 2.5%.
Another poll for Challenges magazine puts Eric Zemmour in second place behind Emmanuel Macron (17%) followed by Marine Le Pen neck and neck with Xavier Bertrand at 15%.
In the second round, Macron would win in all cases.
But the campaign has only just begun. There are still six months to the candidates to associate, tear each other apart, betray, lie, make up… The 2022 campaign promises to be fresh and joyful, politics as we like it in France.