The qualification for the second round of the presidential election of the two leaders of the extremist parties would sound like a thunderclap. But the second round would be lively.
This is political fiction. But after all, aren’t words and ideas meant to remake the world? So let’s imagine what could happen.
Emmanuel Macron’s victory in the second round of the presidential election, which all the polls have been telling us for months was inevitable, is not yet a foregone conclusion, far from it. The lines are moving. The closer we get to the fateful date of the first round, April 10, 2022, the more cautious the pollsters become, explaining that they don’t know very well, that the electorate is volatile, that the French are fickle. In short, that nothing is certain.
A political shock
Because in politics everything is possible, because we are in France, because in our country we rarely vote in favor of a candidate, but more generally against, leaving the field open to his or her challengers, the April 10 election could hold some big surprises.
Macron, arriving in third place behind Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, is not impossible. The political shock would be gigantic. It would awaken a numb public opinion, a mediocre political class, seeking alliances of good will to save some privileges, and benefit from some prebends. But the qualification in the second round of two “anti-system” candidates, one on the extreme right, the other on the extreme left, would leave no one indifferent and would mobilize voters as rarely in France. We would witness a frontal fight, without concessions, left front against right front, worthy of the great American television series.
The challengers: Le Pen and Mélenchon
Marine Le Pen, 53, is running for the third time in the presidential election. The daughter of Jean-Marie Le Pen, who broke with the hard line of the National Front, embodies a more popular vision with the National Rally. She is in second place in the polls, just behind Macron. She had collected 21.30% of the vote in the first round and 33.90% in the second round. She is eager for revenge on 2017.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, 70, is also taking the start of the race for the Élysée for the third time. Despite his blows of gueule, not to say his blows of blood, the boss of France Insoumise finished in fourth place in 2017 with 19.58% of the vote. In 2022, he is still in fourth place with 15% of voting intentions. Selected for the second round, Mélenchon would count on a rejection of the far right to settle in the Élysée.
A Hollywood poster
Beyond the surprise effect, the electoral campaign for the second round, between April 10 and 24, will take on the appearance of a violent confrontation. Ideological confrontation since they defend diametrically opposed ideas and confrontation on the ground by interposed militants.
Because the two candidates, each one in its way, are ”beasts” of the French political life since several decades. They have strong personalities, they are excellent speakers and formidable debaters. They are fully committed to their vision of “a certain idea of France”.
The televised debate between the two rounds would obviously be the highlight of this campaign. Mélenchon vs. Le Pen: an American-style poster for a summit match. One of the two candidates will stay down. The other will go to the Élysée. But which one ?