More than three months after the beginning of the war, the destruction of Ukraine continues and the Russian army is gradually weakening. American aid is falling behind and Europe is gesticulating in a vacuum.
The current scenario is being reinforced in the sense of a lasting confrontation. American aid to the Ukraine is not going away, but this aid (precision weapons) requires at least three months for its real operational implementation, which is a condition for its effectiveness. For example, a precision LRM (multiple rocket launcher) is worth very little if it is not associated with a precise target designation system.
The American aid strengthens Zelensky in his will to recover the territorial integrity of Ukraine – he has inevitable setbacks to wait (and manage) until it can happen (Reconquista). The condition is the effectiveness of American armaments against ‘bunkerized’ forces: we will see what happens, because these armaments have never yet been confronted with reality, on the scale that will prevail. I remind you that only the facts count, and we never forget a true military axiom (Patton): no plan survives contact with the enemy.
Zelensky hands out good and bad points
In the meantime, we are witnessing a progressive destruction of Ukraine and Russian means – the longer it goes on, the worse it gets and the weaker both parties become. We have a concomitant weakening of the famous Europe of Macron, the one of unanimity around the wonderful values of Brussels. Zelensky has become a kind of arbiter of Europe, handing out good and bad points, demanding this and that and delivering the possible recalcitrant to the vindictive.
This position of referee of Europe, even though he is an external element, is eating away at European politics. It will highlight and awaken differences of opinion, even animosities hidden today under the mask of the Brussels propaganda of the “common thought”. It will demonstrate the European imperialism, that is to say the inefficiency of Europe to solve a problem which takes place on its ground (it claims it) and consequently, necessarily, to entrust its interests to the major actor that are the USA.
We can now analyze the pathetic side of the actions undertaken by Macron who wants to be and presents himself as the leader of Europe. We must also remember the mirific expectations of the French presidency of Europe less than 6 months ago. Emmanuel Macron did not hide from ”relaunching” Europe in all fields… We will take stock on July 2nd.
China plays it smart
Meanwhile, the international impact of the Ukrainian affair is turning to the objective disadvantage of the West. On May 25 in Davos, Zelensky denounced a lack of “unity” among Western countries: “My question is: is there in practice unity [in the West] ? I don’t see it,” he lamented.
And China is discreetly supporting Russia with a long-term vision in line with its sense of duopoly. For proof: there is not a single anti-Russian statement, but it regularly renews its assurances of friendship. For further proof: China is the world’s largest importer of oil and it is playing as always with skill: firstly, not to potentially expose its oil giants to American sanctions (which would have been the case if it had openly supported Moscow), and secondly, to gradually increase its imports of Russian oil with an economic windfall effect.
Vortexa Analytics: “In May, Russian oil imports by sea reached a record level of 1.1 bpd (million barrels per day) compared to 750,000 bpd in the first quarter. The low price of Russian oil – spot differentials are about $29 less per barrel than before the invasion, according to traders – is a boon for Chinese refiners who face tight margins in a slowing economy.”
The exclusion of Russia has failed. Point.
Also, on the international level, poor countries see essentially negative effects in the sanctions that they blame on Europe with all the associated diplomatic consequences (intensification of the loss of European influence in Africa).
For example: India has taken very badly the admonitions of Brussels on its stop of wheat export for very serious reasons (decrease of its internal production which it needs the most). Conclusion: on the global diplomatic level, the exclusion of Russia, desired by Brussels (according to Le Drian) has failed. Point.
The Russia-Ukraine war continues. American activism (surprisingly by Biden, but this is a guarantee that he is not the one who inspires American policy) in the Asia-Pacific zone continues (creation of the IPEF, strengthening of the Quad, etc.). This is the crucial issue of the US-China duopoly: we are preparing the means and gathering our camp.
To be continued…