Insee: chiaroscuro forecasts for 2020

In a business survey entitled Clair-obscur, INSEE analyses the growth forecasts for the first half of 2020, which are marked by municipal elections in France.

At the international level, 2019 was marked by political and economic uncertainties that weighed on trade and global growth. However, some of these uncertainties seem to be diminishing somewhat towards the end of the year, and fears of a global economic downturn are diminishing.

By mid-2020, economic activity in the euro area would not slow down further or could even accelerate slightly, thanks to the resilience of domestic demand. French growth is expected to maintain its rate of around +0.3% per quarter; the annual growth rate is expected to reach +0.9% in mid-2020, after +1.3% for the whole of 2019. The unemployment rate is expected to remain on a downward trend and reach 8.2% in mid-2020.
(Julien Pouget – Frédéric Tallet – Marianne Fontvieille – Thomas Laboureau, INSEE)



Thematic sheets and lighting

INSEE’s business review
  • Feedback on the previous forecast form
  • Production sheet
  • External trade sheet
  • Lighting – The quarterly chronicle of French exports is highly dependent on the aeronautical and naval sector
    Lighting – The increase in customs duties on certain French exports to the United States would have a limited short-term effect
  • Job File
    Lighting – Decrease in the number of beneficiaries of assisted contracts: what effect on non-market employment?
  • Unemployment record
    Consumer Price Sheet
  • Salary Statement
    Household Income Sheet
  • Lighting – After the low point at the end of 2018, confidence indicators recovered in 2019 for all household categories, but with some nuances
    Household consumption and investment sheet
  • Company Results Sheet
    Business Investment and Inventory Sheet
  • Oil and raw materials sheet
  • Financial Markets Sheet
  • Lighting – What have been the effects of the fall in interest rates on the incomes of economic agents in France?
    Euro zone sheet
  • Lighting – What is the link between labour shortages and unemployment in France and Europe?
  • Fact sheets Germany – Italy – Spain – United Kingdom – United States – Japan – Emerging economies
  • Lighting – In Germany, consumer and industrial confidence go hand in hand