Four months after the beginning of the war, the Ukrainian actor-president Volodymyr Zelensky has achieved all his goals. The European Commission has just granted Ukraine the status of a candidate for EU membership.
By welcoming Emmanuel Macron, President of the Council of the European Union (until June 30, 2022) to Ukraine, accompanied by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, the Ukrainian president has secured the support of key European leaders to beat Russia and one day join the European Union. Here’s how.
“Places of suffering”
Zelensky has skilfully played the card of compassion, that noble feeling that anesthetizes thought and annihilates the rationality on which any responsible political decision must be based. Zelensky knows it: he even made Europeans feel guilty by making them visit “the places of suffering” like the ruins of Irpin where Macron was “appalled by the Russian barbarity” according to his own words. The main part was done.
After warm embraces and manly handshakes, the three main European leaders could only confirm “the message of support” to Kiev “for the present and for the future”. Each announced the reinforcement of economic and military aid to Ukraine. France, for its part, will send “six additional Caesar tanks” to Ukraine, in addition to the twelve already delivered.
The dialogue of arms
No more questions of “not humiliating Russia” as Macron wanted. “We stand by the Ukrainians without ambiguity (…), the duty of France and Europe was to come [to Kiev].
President Zelensky made his objective clear: the war will only be over when Ukraine has regained its territorial integrity, including Crimea.
This point has been formalized – it is essential – and ridicules in passing the attempts at mediation by President Macron, whose opinion has been trampled on by Zelensky, who has made it clear that the only possible dialogue with Russia for the moment is that of arms! Macron not only has to keep quiet, but he is also asked to approve. He has eaten his hat in public.
Zelensky, maneuvered by the Americans, has very clear ideas: he asks for Europe’s help and Europe says yes. But how? Zelensky knew perfectly well that Europe’s military aid was strictly inadequate (there was talk of the famous Caesar cannons, and the Americans already had to supply the 155 mm shells…). He will therefore fall back on economic and financial aid… as soon as he becomes a candidate (which he has just obtained), he will ask Europe to take charge, to begin with, of the financing of his entire public service. That’s all. And he will get it (Washington will press the “Berlin” button, which will then take over from Brussels). He will thus stabilize the state structure that is threatened today. But after this achievement, he will not stop there!
The status of Ukraine as a candidate for Europe will have a strong consequence: it will tie Ukraine to the European regional zone of American influence and, by domino effect, Europe will not be able to refuse the same status to the Balkan states that demand it. The future border between the American and Chinese zones of influence is clearly visible.
As for the war, it depends only on American armaments (in the broad sense)… the scenario does not hide a big unknown: will the Ukrainians accept to pay the very heavy human price of the Reconquista? Because the war is going to be long (up to several years?) – this is one of the conditions for the definitive weakening of Russia, which will then have to turn to China to defend the few remaining interests (Russia has just received official support from China). Thus, the end of the matter will be, in fine, a China-US discussion to the exclusion of all others, with a single objective: where will the border pass ?
L’Ukraine fait partie de la famille européenne. Avec mes partenaires allemand, italien et roumain, en soutenant le statut de candidat immédiat à l'adhésion à l'Union européenne de l'Ukraine, nous le confirmons au Président Zelensky.
— Emmanuel Macron (@EmmanuelMacron) June 16, 2022
Les négociations des deux comédiens Macron et Zelensky tiennent d'avantage du registre du roman-photo de gare ridicule et burlesque que de la rencontre diplomatique… pic.twitter.com/8K76pzIHyK
— Barbara78 (@dragonduclos) June 16, 2022