American-Russian negotiations leave Europe on the sidelines, as Jean-Baptiste Noé rightly writes in “L’Institut des Libertés”.
Talks between Washington and Moscow have begun in Riyadh, marking a turning point in the war in Ukraine. A development that underlines the diplomatic weakening of Europe and Ukraine itself, now spectators to their own destiny.
Ukraine, a bargaining chip in US strategy
Donald Trump, back at the helm of American diplomacy, has been quick to focus on resolving the Ukrainian conflict. His aim: to free up American resources to focus on China and Mexico, considered the real strategic stakes. Russia, while still occupying 20% of Ukrainian territory, is showing signs of economic fatigue after three years of war. Vladimir Putin reiterated his non-opposition to Ukrainian membership of the EU, a point which had crystallized tensions in the 2010s.
The American balance-of-power doctrine
American strategy is directly inspired by the British doctrine of the 19th century: systematically allying with the third world power to counterbalance the second. This approach, once applied in Europe, is now played out between the United States, China and Russia. Donald Trump is reversing Nixon’s strategy: where Nixon approached China to isolate the USSR, Trump is now seeking to seduce Moscow to counter Beijing.
Europe, the great absentee of the negotiations
The choice of Riyadh as the venue for negotiations is symbolic of a change of era. The Europeans, despite their recent meetings in Paris, find themselves marginalized in the discussions. The absence of the United Kingdom, despite its long-standing support for Ukraine, is also notable. With Germany in crisis, France weakened and the UK in retreat, only Giorgia Meloni’s Italy seems to be maintaining any influence, albeit limited by its alignment with Washington.
The current situation reveals a paradox: while the future of Europe is taking shape, it is the powers outside Europe that are defining its contours. For Zelensky’s Ukraine, the risk is now to see its fate sealed without even being invited to the negotiating table.